3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/2/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Tuesday's main slate is on the small side with six games, but we should be able to find options to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Russell Westbrook ($10,000) - In yesterday's piece, we broke down why it is becoming almost a DFS requirement to play point guards when they match up against Damian Lillard. Dame's defense has been downright atrocious, and it paid off yesterday when Jrue Holiday scored 46 FanDuel points in fewer than 30 minutes of court time.

Tonight, we should keep the hot streak going with Westbrook, especially considering Lillard should be one of the chalky plays at the position.

Not only does Westbrook's salary provide a direct-line pivot off of Lillard ($10,200), but Westbrook seems to finally be recovering from the injuries and poor play that hampered him early in the season. His minutes and FanDuel points have increased each of the last four games, culminating in 34 minutes and 71 FanDuel points against the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.

Tonight's matchup is demonstrably better than the one he faced on Sunday -- the Nets are actually allow the fourth-fewest FanDuel points to point guards this year while the Blazers, "led" by Lillard, allow the fourth-most.

Forward

Joe Harris ($5,000) - After taking a quick scan across the implied totals for the games tonight and checking the season-long defensive metrics, what stands out is that it is absolutely imperative that you have a piece of this Brooklyn Nets-Los Angeles Clippers game in your lineups tonight.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the total in this game is a colossal 242.5 with a slim 1.0-point spread.

There are any number of stellar plays from this game, and it features several studs worth their lofty salaries. But if you are looking for a smaller slice, Harris has been a central part of the Nets' game-plan, even with their new Big Three. It's been 10 games since Harris played fewer than 31 minutes in an outing, and he is shooting more than ever, even with three usage monsters on his team.

In the past week, Harris has broken two Nets' three-point records. He first hit eight three-pointers in the game against the Wizards and then hit his 53rd three-pointer in January on Sunday, breaking the team record. In a game that should feature plenty of offensive firepower, Harris only needs 25 FanDuel points to reach value tonight, and he is numberFire's best projected value of the night at small forward.

Center

Rudy Gobert ($9,100) - The industry should (rightly) be all over Nikola Vucevic tonight with the Orlando Magic missing Aaron Gordon's 23% usage rate. Vuc likely will be the popular play at the center position, and there is nothing wrong with going there considering he has scored at least 39 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight.

But his popularity and salary ($8,800) mean fewer people will pay even more for Gobert, even though Rudy has the far superior matchup.

Gobert gets to face the Detroit Pistons, who surrender the second-most FanDuel points to the position, including top-five numbers allowed in rebounds and blocks. This is Gobert's bread and butter, and he should be able to have his way with undersized and overmatched Mason Plumlee. Gobert is averaging the most rebounds and second most blocks per-36 minutes in his career, and there is no reason he should slow down tonight.

There might be some who feel this game is too risky considering the Pistons and Nuggets were postponed at the last minute yesterday, but if that keeps Gobert's roster percentage down, it's that much better for tournament lineups.