3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/3/21
"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?
When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.
Wednesday's main slate is a large 10 games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.
Guard
LaMelo Ball ($6,600) - There are a number of elite high-salary point guards and value options tonight, but it might be worth playing the waiting game before just plugging in Theo Maledon (with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out) and an expensive Luka Doncic or Trae Young. If Terry Rozier's ankle injury keeps him out or limited tonight, it might be the LaMelo show again at a very reasonable salary.
There was a lot made about Ball making his first career start in his last game (and a career-high 31 minutes), but the truth is he had played more than 27 minutes in four of his last six games and averaged 36.2 FanDuel points per game in those contests. On the season, Ball is already averaging a 23% usage rate and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute, roughly the same as Ben Simmons.
Speaking of Simmons, he is matched up tonight against Ball and ranks 74th out of 82 point guards this season in real defensive plus-minus. As a team, the Philadelphia 76ers allow 23 points and 9 assists per game to the position, perfectly setting up Ball whose 35.6% assist rate ranks top 10 among all guards with at least 25 minutes played per game.
Forward
Julius Randle ($8,600) - You have to parse your way through a lot of studs at the power forward position before you get to Randle's name: Giannis, Tatum, Adebayo, Wood, and Sabonis. These are all excellent options, and it certainly takes on risk to avoid any of these high-salary studs.
Looking past the surface-level stats shows that Randle averages more FanDuel points per game (44.22) than any of them except Giannis, and we still see a very viable play tonight who can knock off anywhere from a couple hundred to a couple thousand dollars of salary in your lineup.
The Chicago Bulls are top-10 in most points, assists, and steals allowed to the power forward position, and Lauri Markkanen has been quite a defensive disaster this year. He ranks 65th out of 77 power forwards in defensive plus-minus and ranks 74th out of 92 forwards with 25 minutes per game with a 113.7 defensive rating.
Add in the fact that only Giannis averages a higher usage rate and higher FanDuel points per minute average this year at the position, and you are staring at a player who will have a very low roster percentage in one of the best individual game environments on the night.
Center
Al Horford ($6,500) - For the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's usage rate (27%) plus assist rate (32%) make up a tremendous slice of their offensive pie. With SGA on the bench tonight, where will all that offense come from? While many will zig to Theo Maledon and his low salary, zagging to Horford might be just as beneficial at a fraction of the roster percentage.
Center tonight seems to have limited options with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond up top and Cody Zeller or Mitchell Robinson down low. The mid-range is sort of a no man's land of Horford, Richaun Holmes, Naz Reid, and DeMarcus Cousins. Not too much to get excited about, but with SGA and George Hill off the floor, it's whole different ballgame for Horford.
With those players missing, Horford sees a 4.9% bump in usage and 1.91 more FanDuel points per 36 minutes.
We have seen the Houston Rockets morph into an amazing defensive unit since James Harden left town, but they still continue to struggle against centers, where they are just middle of the pack. Horford just put up 33 FanDuel points in just 25 minutes against them on Monday, and be assured he should get more playing time in this one.
