NBA Betting Guide: Saturday 2/6/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic
Under 225.0: 5-Star Rating out of 5
The Orlando Magic roared out of the gates with a 6-2 record. Since then, they've fallen from what looked like a team likely to make another playoff push to one struggling to stay off the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
The Magic have gone just 3-12 since their hot start, though they showed their mettle last night with a 123-119 win over the Chicago Bulls, getting 43 points from Nikola Vucevic. The teams, who are both 7.0 games back in the East, will meet again tonight, but our model doesn't foresee another high-scoring affair.
Last night's game was just the second time in their past 10 meetings that the over has hit. It was the first time that they had combined for at least 220 points since January 12, 2015. They've combined for fewer than 200 points in five of their past seven meetings and are averaging just 197.9 points in that seven-game span, including last night's outburst.
Since last year, the over has gone 8-7 when the Magic have played on no rest. There have, however, been an average of just 215.8 points scored in those contests, which is well below tonight's 225.0-point mark.
FanDuel bettors don't think we'll be seeing a low-scoring game tonight, with 66% of bets and 80% of the money being laid on the over, according to oddsFire. But numberFire's model has the teams combining for only 212.4 points. We give the under a 72.4% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a five-star play.
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 228.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Our model has identified another game in which we think the under is going to be a winner: the Milwaukee Bucks at the Cleveland Cavaliers. Once again, our model disagrees with FanDuel bettors, as 64% of bets and 72% of the money is being placed on the over.
Like the Bulls-Magic game, the Bucks and Cavs are on the second night of a back-to-back against each other. The Bucks downed the Cavs 123-105 last night, narrowly going past the 227.5 total. The over has been a consistent theme in their meetings.
Iit has hit a whopping 68.6% of the time over the past 10 seasons. However, in games where at least one of the teams has played on no rest, the over has gone just 5-6-1 in that span. Those 12 games have seen an average of just 203.5 points.
Cleveland has scored 100 or fewer points in three out of their past four games on no rest after a loss. The under is 4-0-1 in the Bucks' past five games on no rest after winning by more than 15 points.
numberFire's model projects the teams to combine for 218.7 points this evening. We give the under a 66.8% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $127.50 for every $100 wagered, we mark the under as a four-star wagr.
