3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/8/21
"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?
When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.
Monday's main slate is eight games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.
Guard
Stephen Curry ($10,100) - I am really falling in love with the Golden State Warriors-San Antonio Spurs game tonight. I'm predicting it falls slightly under the radar, with most eyes focusing on the track meet between the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards, the marquee matchup between Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, or the value that is popping in the Houston Rockets and Charlotte Hornets game.
Let other folks roster Luka Doncic, LaMelo Ball, or John Wall. I'm all in on Curry tonight. Nevermind the fact that he just went nuclear against the Mavericks on Saturday (70 FanDuel points), even without that performance, we are witnessing one of the best seasons of Curry's career, and now he gets a game environment perfectly tailored to his strengths.
The implied total in this matchup has crossed 233 points, with both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace this year and both only ranking middle of the pack in defensive rating. The Spurs allow the seventh-most FanDuel points to point guards this year, which includes allowing the fourth-most three-pointers made and the fifth-highest three-point shooting percentage. You may have heard that Curry shoots three-pointers. Well, get ready for a lot of them tonight.
Without the other superstars around, Curry is averaging the second-best usage rate of his career and is still shooting over 48% on the year despite more than 20 shots take per game -- a career high.
Forward
Keldon Johnson ($5,300) - It only makes sense to have a piece from the other side of this game, as well. Beyond the high total, it also carries the lowest spread of the night, with the Spurs only small 1.5-point favorites at home.
In every game since December 30 -- when it became clear the role Johnson would have on this year's Spurs team -- his salary has been higher than it is tonight. Has he disappointed DFS players the past two games? Yes. Only 29 total FanDuel points in two games is not going to get it done. But what about the four games before that, when he averaged 34.5 FanDuel points per contest?
With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined for the foreseeable future and Lonnie Walker also on the shelf tonight, the Spurs are missing a combined 40.5% usage rate and 14.2% rebound rate. I'm looking for Johnson to pick up that slack since he already carries a strong 20.4% usage rate and 12.4% rebound rate on his own. DeMar DeRozan also is a strong play tonight, but for a fraction of the salary, Johnson allows me to spend up for Curry and another stud on this slate.
Center
Andre Drummond ($7,200) - Here is where I think the masses will go for the center positions tonight: Jokic ($11,600; coming off an 89 FanDuel point game), Thaddeus Young ($7,200; playing 30 minutes off the bench and scored over 35 FanDuel points in five of six games), or DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000; now playing big minutes with Christian Wood out and producing 1.32 FanDuel points per minute).
That leaves Drummond out of the circle of trust tonight. But he most certainly deserves to be in your player pool in tournaments. After missing one game due to a back injury, he has ramped up from 22 minutes to over 30 in just three games and got back to putting up 40-plus FanDuel points. In fact, six of his last seven games have produced over 35 FanDuel points, and the one that didn't was his first game back when he only played 22 minutes.
What makes Drummond even more appealing tonight is he will not have Larry Nance as a frontcourt partner competing with him for rebounds and blocked shots. Nance is scheduled to miss several weeks with injury, so the salary for Drummond has not caught up to the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers will be relying on him even more during that time.
Drummond is already averaging his highest usage rate and rebound rate of his career. With fewer bodies competing for frountcourt minutes, Drummond has the opportunity to 7x his salary tonight.
