3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/10/21
"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?
When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.
Wednesday's main slate is nine games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.
Guard
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) - The trend of getting exposure to someone playing the Brooklyn Nets defense continues. Tonight, we have an opportunity to roster Brogdon at a $1,500 discount from his peak just two weeks ago.
After a three-game stretch averaging just 25 FanDuel points per game, now is the time to buy some Brogdon stock before it shoots back up. We have seen how many points the Nets are allowing to opponents recently, but just how bad has the defense been?
The Nets since the Harden trade:
122.6 offensive rating
- Best in league
- Would be the best of all time
119.9 defensive rating
- Worst in league
- Would be the worst of all time pic.twitter.com/B5EbhfuEzH
— StatMuse (@statmuse) February 1, 2021
It's even worse over the last six games, as their defensive rating has ballooned to 123.7. Put in perspective, the gap between the Nets and the third-worst defense in that span is 5.1 points (118.6), or the same as the gap between the third-worst (118.6) and the 16th-worst defense (113.3).
The recent poor box scores plus the elite offensive environment for the Indiana Pacers make Brogdon an ideal point guard selection for tournaments while others salivate over the Luka Doncic-Trae Young matchup or LaMelo Ball's latest TopShot moment.
Forward
Kyle Anderson ($5,700) - Speaking of the Charlotte Hornets, they have been simply atrocious against power forwards this year. With both of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke out for the Memphis Grizzlies with injury, Anderson has been forced into the PF role and tonight has the potential to be a ceiling game for the versatile forward.
Beyond allowing 51.38 FanDuel points per game to the position (2.3 points more than any other team in 2021), the Hornets are top six in most points, assists, three-pointers, and steals allowed to power forwards. PJ Washington ranks 60th out of 72 power forwards in real defensive plus-minus this year and has struggled to contain his matchup consistently this year.
Even before we consider match-up, Anderson has been accelerating his game with all of the Grizzlies' injuries and COVID holdouts. He has scored at least 30 FanDuel points in six of his last eight games and has an easy path to be able to 6x his salary tonight at only $5,700.
Center
Clint Capela ($8,300) - We are all hyped to get the "Who was the better pick in the draft?" match-up tonight between Young and Doncic. It will assuredly attract a lot of eyeballs and player pools in the DFS community, but that individual match-up might just overshadow the fact that this is the best overall game environment of the night. With a gaudy 234 implied total and the Mavericks playing at the third-fastest pace in February, this is sure to be a game with plenty of possessions and fantasy opportunity.
This all helps a strong per-minute producer like Capela. His production (1.41 FanDuel points per minute) ranks only slightly behind Nikola (1.60) and Drummond (1.54) among centers tonight. After a dud in a highly-touted matchup against the Nets two weeks ago, Capela has bounced back with at least 41 FanDuel points in four of five games. His salary, however, is still more than $2,000 lower than his peak when he was putting up 15 points and 20 rebounds per night for a stretch.
The Mavericks have struggled to defend down low in the post this year, as they allow the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to centers. Capela is second in the league this year with a 22.2% rebound rate and is now over 40 FanDuel points per game on the season coming into tonight's match-up which should allow him to keep posting big numbers.
