NBA Betting Guide for 2/11/21: The Public Loves the Warriors Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons
The Indiana Pacers played the Brooklyn Nets last night and now travel to face the Detroit Pistons. Surprisingly, the Pacers and Nets were the only game to go under their posted total last night. That's not really predictive of anything, but it's at least noteworthy that the Pacers are one of two teams playing today that played last night (the other being the Toronto Raptors).
Early money in this game is backing the over, though. oddsFire shows that 34% of the tickets but 45% of the money is on the under. That still leaves a majority of the action on the over, but two things: there's some smart money on the under, and the total has dropped from 218.5 at the open to 216.0 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Our algorithm actually still sees the under at that new total as 56.2% likely to occur, for a slight return of 7.3%. Value overall tonight seems pretty tight, so keep an eye on this game's total if it ticks back up closer to the open -- which is possible if the majority of bets and money come on the over. Then snatch the under. But even at 216.0, the algorithm likes the under.
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
The betting public is hammering the Golden State Warriors in this game. Roughly 90% of the bets and money are on the spread and moneyline for the Warriors.
There's also a huge deviation on the under here: 29% of the bets but 46% of the money is on the under in this one. That's a 17-point differential, which is intriguing. numberFire's algorithm views the under (224.0) as a two-star recommendation out of five and considers it 62.2% likely to occur. My model views the under as 57.1% likely. Either way, a lot points to the under.
For what it's worth, numberFire's algorithm does like the Orlando Magic plus the points (+7.5), but I'm not quite there. My model views an 11.0-point gap between these two sides (which is in line with the betting trends) when accounting for expected pace. Per my ELO-based adjusted point differential, the Magic rate out 30th in the NBA (-8.7) and the Warriors are 11th (+1.8), which is a 10.5-point gap.
There's a lot to like in this game with the under no matter how you view the spread and moneyline.
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers
My model and numberFire's model agree on this game with regards to the Portland Trail Blazers +5.5.
numberFire's algorithm views that bet as a three-star wager out of five. The median projected score is 116.5 to 115.4, via numberFire, in favor of the visiting Philadelphia 76ers, but that bodes very well for the home underdog.
My ELO-based adjusted point differentials for this season show the Sixers as a +2.8 and the Blazers as a -1.0, which is still just a 3.8-point gap. But accounting for pace and matchup here, my model views this game about as close as numberFire's does, and if I specifically use expected data from the Blazers without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, the expected spread is still just 4.3.
The Blazers to win outright (a +194 moneyline) suggests they are 34.0% likely to win. numberFire shows them as 45.6% likely to win. My model returns a 37.7% probability with their data with McCollum and Nurkic out, but it does look like the Blazers are being undervalued in this spot.
