NBA Betting Guide: Saturday 2/13/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors

Under 245.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5

At a total of 245.5 points, tonight's contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors is tied for the highest total of the 2020-21 season. Our model doesn't see the teams combining for anywhere close to that level of output.

It will be an interesting battle; the over is 8-3 in the Nets' away games but only 5-9 in the Warriors' home games. The Warriors' defense hasn't shown up on the road, where they've given up an average of 117.6 points, gotten out-rebounded by 8.1, and given up 45.2% shooting from the floor. At home, however, those numbers drop precipitously to 108.4, 0.9, and 42.2%, respectively.

The under has gone 5-2 when the Warriors have been home underdogs this season, hitting in four straight. The under is just 18-20 when Kevin Durant has faced his old team throughout his career. It's hit in seven of his past nine meetings against Golden State, however, including his only meeting against them whilst on the Nets.

A strong 63% of bets and 69% of the money is being laid on the over on FanDuel Sportsbook, but our model doesn't see the game going that way. We have the teams projected to combine for 232.1 points, well below the 245.5-point total. We give the under a 74.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a five-star play.

Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks

Pacers Moneyline (-120): 4-Star Rating out of 5

A couple of weeks ago, the Atlanta Hawks were sitting at 10-9 and on their way to a major improvement from their 20-47 finish last year. Unfortunately for Hawks fans, Atlanta has started to look like their former selves, dropping five of their past six and falling out of Eastern Conference playoff positioning.

The Hawks won't have time to rest after their loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night, which isn't a good sign for them to bounce back. They've gone 0-4 this season an 2-14 since last year when playing on no rest, and our algorithm foresees another tally in the loss column today when they host the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana has won 11 of their past 13 matchups against Atlanta, outscoring the Hawks by an average of 7.9 points in those games. Over the past two years, they've won six of their past eight games as favorites against teams on no rest. Away favorites versus teams on no rest who are coming off a loss are 15-7 this season.

numberFire projects the Pacers to win by 5.2 points this evening. We give them a 68.9% chance of winning. With an expected return of $126.30 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a four-star play.