NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 2/14/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks

Under 245.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5

They lost Zach Collins. They lost Jusuf Nurkic. They lost C.J. McCollum. Some teams would crumble after losing so many key pieces, but not the 2020-21 Portland Trail Blazers. Despite the trimmed team, the Blazers have won five of their past six, vaulting them to a 15-10 record and fifth place in the Western Conference.

You can, of course, thank Damian Lillard for leading the way, but other Blazers have stepped up -- notably Enes Kanter, who is third in the league in offensive rebounds per game and, amazingly, 19th in Player Efficiency Rating. Gary Trent Jr. has also been a difference maker, shooting a rather ridiculous 47.3% from behind the arc in his 10 starts.

The Blazers will take on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks tonight, and Portland comes into the game as 5.0-point underdogs. It's just the fourth time this season that Portland has been a 'dog of at least 5.0 points; they've gone 2-1 in the previous three games, with both wins coming against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Dallas is just 3-8 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites this season, failing to cover by an average of 9.1 points. According to oddsFire, bettors are currently split on who they think will cover in this one, with 53% of bets and 49% of the money being laid on Portland.

Our model is keyed in on the Blazers, to whom we give a 59.0% chance of covering the 5.0-point spread. With an expected return of $112.60 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a two-star play.

San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets

Under 229.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5

After winning 7 of their last 10, the San Antonio Spurs come into tonight's away game against the Charlotte Hornets at 15-11, good for sixth in the Western Conference. Our model likes the under in this one as the Spurs look to continue their recent hot streak.

The under is 6-4 in the Spurs' past 10 games, and it's hit in four of their past six away games. Tonight marks just the fifth time San Antonio has been road favorites this season; they've given up just 106.0 points per game in the previous four.

The under has gone 5-4 with the Hornets as home underdogs this season. Charlotte, who is sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, has seen their defensive rating jump from 25th last year to 16th heading into tonight's home game.

The under is 5-2 this season when the Hornets are at home following a win. They've given up just 104.4 points in those seven contests.

The betting public sees this as higher-scoring affair, with 60% of the money being placed on the over. numberFire's algorithm, however, gives the under a 63.3% chance of hitting. We mark the bet as a three-star play.