FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 2/15/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,600) - I really want to start the discussion at shooting guard today because we have Harden without Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal without (most likely) Russell Westbrook, who played yesterday, and Donovan Mitchell without Mike Conley.

Getting one -- if not two -- into a lineup has a ton of appeal based on how they rate out relative to the rest of the position. With Harden and Kyrie Irving on the court and Durant off, Harden boasts a 1.14-FanDuel-point-per-minute average this season on a 23.4% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool. Those aren't what we usually expect from Harden, but the Brooklyn Nets face the Sacramento Kings in a game with a 241.5-point over/under. It's hard to overthink this one.

Bradley Beal ($9,800) - For as good as Harden's outlook is, Beal is also in a great spot. The total in the game between the Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards is 228.0 with a tight 1.5-point spread. Beal -- when Westbrook is off the court -- boasts incredibly silly rates: 39.9% usage and 1.53 FanDuel points per minute. He already leads the NBA in usage rate, and that gets even higher without Westbrook. Houston ranks 26th in adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to opposing shooting guards based on my adjusted data.

Others to Consider: Donovan Mitchell ($8,300), Eric Gordon ($6,200), Jordan Clarkson ($5,500), Collin Sexton ($6,500), Seth Curry ($4,100)

Point Guard

Darius Garland ($5,500) - We can totally build around point guard tonight at the high end with John Wall, Stephen Curry, and Kyrie Irving out there, but we can also rely on the value available at the position. That can let us go hard at the three star shooting guards or spend up elsewhere. Garland is getting love from numberFire's model tonight, and he's projected for the best value rating on the board (5.71 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) at the position. Though pace isn't contagious, the Cleveland Cavaliers will likely benefit from a raw possession standpoint by playing the NBA's fastest adjusted opponent, the Golden State Warriors.

Raul Neto ($3,700) - Neto is a standout play assuming Westbrook sits because Ish Smith is also ruled out. Neto would form a good game stack within the position with his opponent, John Wall. Neto puts up a usable 17.5% usage rate when sharing the floor with Beal but without Westbrook, and his 0.89 FanDuel points per minute average over that 191-minute sample is viable as well. In the last game that Westbrook missed, Neto played just 16.7 minutes, but Smith played 31.3. Neto should be cleared up for big run at a near-minimum salary.

Others to Consider: John Wall ($7,700), Stephen Curry ($10,500), Kyrie Irving ($9,600), Coby White ($5,800)

Center

DeMarcus Cousins ($6,100) - I'm going to slide to the onesie position and talk about center because only three players have a salary above $7,800: Joel Embiid ($10,700), Rudy Gobert ($8,300), and Clint Capela ($7,800). Of the three, Embiid rates out best relative to his salary in my model, and paying heavy salary at center would allow you to differentiate from the studs at guard more obviously -- especially with his back injury and matchup with the Utah Jazz. However, we have a really strong mid-range option with Cousins. (Initially, I talked about Andre Drummond as well, but he's going to sit out.)

Cousins draws the Wizards, who are 27th against centers after adjusting for opponents faced and in estimated rebounding rate. Victor Oladipo is out today, and without Oladipo (and Harden) but with Cousins and Wall on the court, Cousins generates 1.23 FanDuel points per minute on a 24.5% usage rate. Implemented into the good matchup, that'll work.

Others to Consider: Joel Embiid ($10,700), Rudy Gobert ($8,300), Clint Capela ($7,800), Myles Turner ($6,800)

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600) - Although power forward has a few strong names at the top, it's always hard to find reasons to dislike Sabonis, one of the most consistent producers from a game-to-game standpoint in the entire league. Sabonis has logged at least 27.2 minutes in all but one game and has put up at least 30.0 FanDuel points in all but three games this season. He doesn't really flash 60-point upside (which he's done just once this season) but has seven games with at least 50.0 FanDuel points. The Chicago Bulls are 22nd against opposing power forwards this season, and the Indiana Pacers have the fifth-best implied team total on the slate.

Nerlens Noel ($4,800) - Noel slotted into a 32-minute role on Saturday with Mitchell Robinson out and put up 25.2 FanDuel points in that span against the Rockets. He draws the Atlanta Hawks for tonight's matchup, and though they are a top-10 frontcourt defense, we have seen plenty of fantasy efficiency from Noel in his career. He's averaging 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his past five rates have been 1.13, 1.21, 1.05, 1.11, and 1.06. That puts him in the 30-point projectable range for tonight, a great return at $4,800.

Others to Consider: Julius Randle ($8,600), Bam Adebayo ($8,700), Patrick Williams ($4,500), Davis Bertans ($4,100)

Small Forward

Joe Ingles ($4,900) - Ingles remains a low-usage player without Conley (16.7%, via RotoGrinders) but still puts up 0.88 FanDuel points per minute in that 338-minute sample. The primary reason to like him is bankable minutes (28 or more in five straight games) with the ability to grab rebounds and assists while also being able to score when things go his way (20-plus points in two of the past three games). For as good as the Philadelphia 76ers' defense is, they are beatable in the backcourt and at the wing positions. numberFire projects Ingles for a great value rating of 5.26.

Harrison Barnes ($6,600) - For as elite as the over/under is between the Nets and Kings, there isn't a ton that stands out from a salary-based standpoint aside from the stars. I don't want to overlook it entirely, and there are obvious reasons to stack a game with a 241.5-point total even if it doesn't feel like we're getting the best value. Though Barnes has seen his shot attempts decrease (14, 17, 16 in a three-game stretch before falling to 7, 9, 9, and 6) in recent games, numberFire sees his field goal attempts settling back in at 14.4 in this high-scoring game. Barnes -- in those three games with heavy shot volume -- produced 40-plus FanDuel points in each.

Others to Consider: Kawhi Leonard ($9,800), Jimmy Butler ($8,900), Joe Harris ($4,900)