NBA Betting Guide for 2/17/21: Can We Trust the Trends on the Warriors Tonight?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Indianapolis Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves

numberFire's algorithm is keen on the under in this matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves, which had opened at at 227.5 and is now 225.5. Our algo rated the initial total as a four-star recommendation out of five, but the lower total still rates out as a three-star spot. Our algorithm indicates that the under is 63.1% likely to occur, which is good for a 20.5% return.

The median score projection is 112.8 to 106.2 for the Pacers, a total of 219.0. My model -- using just 2020-21's opponent-adjusted data -- returned an expected over/under of 220.0, so there's still room at the new line to back the under.

The Timberwolves have been a strong offense in 170 minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns and without D'Angelo Russell -- with an offensive rating of 116.0, which would rank fifth on the full season. Despite that, they just played last night against the Los Angeles Lakers, an elite defense. They posted a 106.1 offensive rating, roughly in line with what LA allows.

We've got average paces and reasons not to like the offenses a ton specifically on Wednesday, so the under makes plenty of sense here.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

oddsFire indicates that smart money is coming in on the over in this game.

Although the majority of the bets are already on the over (68%), 86% of the money is coming in on the over. That's an 18-point gap between the bets and money. The total opened at 223.5 and is up a point to 224.5. This goes against numberFire's recommendation, which is the under (actually a three-star recommendation). Why do I say this contradictory info? Just because it's interesting, I guess. But more so because there's a better spot in this game where the algorithm and betting trends do align.

That is on the Oklahoma City Thunder +7.0. numberFire's algorithm also sees that as a three-star recommendation out of five and projects the Thunder to cover 62.0% of the time. Our median projected point total for this one is a 110.8 to 107.6 loss for OKC, but that's well within the range of the spread.

My ELO-based adjusted point differentials from this season shows a 3.9-point gap between the teams (favoring the Memphis Grizzlies), but that again is a good number given the spread.

Both teams will be on a back-to-back, and yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out and and Al Horford is possible to miss after playing last night, but the Thunder's net rating without those two is -3.6. The Grizzlies' full-season rate is -1.0.

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors

numberFire is projecting a razor thin game in this one: a 109.88 to 109.86 win for the Golden State Warriors at home. The betting trends, though, are heavy on one side, and that's the Warriors.

There has been north of 70% of the bets and money on the Warriors to cover (-1.5) and to win outright (-108). The Warriors, simply, have been better than the Miami Heat this season. Golden State's adjusted point differential (+2.1) is 5.2 points better than Miami's (-3.1), and my model expected close to a 7.0-point spread for Golden State once factoring in pace and a slight home court advantage.

If we narrow the gap to the past 15 games (which is where I have found somewhat of a sticking point with where we can trust small-sample net ratings), the Warriors are third in the NBA at a +5.7; Miami is 23rd at a -3.6.

In 15 games in which Jimmy Butler has played this season, Miami has an offensive rating of 110.1 and a defensive rating of 107.4, a net of +2.7. That's better, but it's still not quite as good as the Warriors' numbers right now.