3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/17/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Wednesday's main slate is a massive 10 games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Ben Simmons ($9,600) - When I opened up this slate today, I fully expected the Denver Nuggets against the lowly Washington Wizards to have the highest implied total on the slate. I was shocked to see that the number actually belonged to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are at home against a Houston Rockets team struggling to find a consistent starting lineup and their defensive identity.

Simmons should once again run the show for the 76ers and their 119-point implied total, and if he can keep up his recent play, we could be looking at a slate-breaking performance from a player with a lower roster percentage than both Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry. Since sitting out one game, he has put up over 49 FanDuel points per game in his last five, including 72.8 in his last game against a stingy Utah Jazz defense.

He should find himself in an elite game environment tonight with both teams in the top 10 in pace this year. Many DFS managers might get scared off by the higher spread in this game (11.5 points for the home favorite 76ers), but Simmons is playing 34 minutes a night recently no matter the game's outcome and is likely to be matched up against John Wall, who ranks 62nd among point guards this year in defensive plus-minus.

Forward

Julius Randle ($9,000) - On the surface, this game tonight between the New York Knicks and Orlando Magic looks quite ugly for DFS purposes. The game's implied total -- 210 points -- is more than 12 points lower than the next-lowest implied total on the slate and features two teams that are bottom-10 in pace this season.

But those conditions have been there for most of the season for Randle, and he has been able to overcome them to the tune of 45 FanDuel points per game, including a 60-point explosion against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday. Considering Randle has crossed 40 FanDuel points in seven of his last nine games, being able to roster someone with 50-plus-point upside at an incredibly low roster percentage should provide immediate leverage in tournament fields.

The revolving door at power forward has not served the Magic well this year, constantly shifting between Aaron Gordon, Khem Birch, and Gary Clark. None of this power forward trio ranks higher than 21st in defensive real plus-minus this year, and they should struggle all night to contain Randle.

Center

Enes Kanter ($6,000) - After paying a salary premium for other positions, there might not be the funds available to spend up on the studs at center tonight. It's going to be extremely difficult to scroll past the Embiids, Jokics, and Vucevics on this slate, but paying down will certainly provide immediate differentiation.

Enter Enes Kanter, who despite a poor shooting night on Tuesday, showed he can put up elite performances that can easily reach value at a $6,000 salary. Under the radar the past few weeks, Kanter has put up a double-double in nine of his last 12 games and only needs 33 FanDuel points to reach 5x value tonight.

Also under the radar, the New Orleans Pelicans have dropped to 29th in the league in defensive rating and have had serious issues allowing their opponents to run up the score, with the most recent example being the 123 points and 118 points they allowed in their most recent games to the Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies. This should be a game with plenty of pace and offensive fireworks, aligning well for Kanter assuming he keeps up his recent stretch of playing almost 30 minutes per night.