FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 2/18/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's three-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Small Forward

Key Stud: As I outlined in my studs to target column, LeBron James ($10,500) is not just our model's second-highest projected scorer, but he's also numberFire's fifth-best projected point-per-dollar play on the entire slate. LeBron will be taking on a Brooklyn Nets squad that's allowing a vomit-inducing 121.8 points per game since James Harden came to town, and he'll be doing so without the services of Anthony Davis. With AD off the court this season, LeBron's already-high usage rate takes a 1.5-percentage-point jump, per RotoGrinders. King James has put up at least 54.1 FanDuel points in four of his last seven games, and he has recorded fewer than 49.5 just once in his last eight outings.

Other Studs to Consider: Small forward seemingly has more playable studs than any other position -- so let's talk about them. Like James, Jimmy Butler ($9,200) and Khris Middleton ($7,300) are likely both going to see pretty high rostership, but that shouldn't deter us. Butler has been a very consistent fantasy option since he returned in late January, topping 45 FanDuel points in 8 of his 10 games (he posted 38.1 and 41.5 in the other two). That said, there is some reason for hesitancy here. Jimmy Buckets hasn't played on both ends of a back-to-back in nearly a full calendar year, and he's coming off a game in which he played 41 grueling minutes. There's also the fact that Goran Dragic has yet to be declared out for tonight's game, but we should (hopefully) have a clearer picture of that later in the day.

As for Middleton, he has scuffled in his last three games, managing just 23.4, 32.1, and 20.4 FanDuel points. That said, his upside, coupled with a salary well under $8,000, means that he's unlikely to see a depressed draft percentage. If you're hoping to be contrarian by rostering Middleton, you're likely to be disappointed.

One high-salaried dudes who could see a significantly lower roster percentage than the aforementioned three stars is Pascal Siakam ($8,500). For the most part, Siakam's rostership has hovered between 2% and 5% over the last couple of weeks, and while that's likely to be higher on a three-game slate, it does show a trend of a player who often goes overlooked. And while the 26-year-old's salary isn't as enticing as Middleton's, his production is nothing to scoff at. Pascal has amassed at least 40 FanDuel points in seven of his last nine games, and that includes outputs of 48.6, 52.0, 56.5, and 67.2 during that stretch. Against these same Bucks on Tuesday, Siakam racked up 48.6 fantasy points.

Value Options: Value scarce at small forward, which is why I prefer a two-stud build at the position. However, if you're dead set on saving at one spot here, there are a couple of plays to consider.

If Kyle Lowry (ankle) doesn't suit up, we can look to Norman Powell ($5,800) or even OG Anunoby ($6,400). Powell has averaged 30.8 FanDuel points in the four games Lowry has missed this season (he did play 5.5 minutes in one of them). Meanwhile, Anunoby has showcased his range of outcomes in his three games without the veteran point guard on the floor -- 16.4, 31.3, and 55.1 FanDuel points, to be exact. It's worth noting that the 55.1-fantasy-point performance came with Siakam out of the lineup, as well.

Duncan Robinson ($4,100) might be the best salary-saving option at the position regardless of Lowry's status. Robinson is squaring off against a Sacramento Kings team that's allowing the second-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games. However, Robinson hasn't topped 21.8 FanDuel points in any of his last 13 games, so don't count on too much upside.

Finally, Joe Harris ($5,200) is always worthy of consideration when Kevin Durant is out of the lineup. Harris relies on the three-ball to return fantasy value, and over their last 15 games, the Lakers are ceding the ninth-most made three-pointers to small forwards.

Power Forward

Key Stud: numberFire's model projects Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) to outscore every other player on the slate by 5.7 FanDuel points. Oh, and Giannis also happens to be our algorithm's second-best point-per-dollar value play even at his big salary. As I outlined in the aforementioned studs, Giannis averages an absurd 1.73 FanDuel points per minute with Jrue Holiday off the court this season, and he's managed at least 65 fantasy points in each of his last four games without Holiday. Not much else needs to be said.

The Rest: With Richaun Holmes out again tonight, Marvin Bagley III ($5,200) is very much in play. Bagley managed 30.4 FanDuel points in 21.1 on Monday with Holmes out of the lineup. It doesn't hurt that the Miami Heat are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to power forwards over their last 15 contests.

Despite a subpar performance on Tuesday from Kyle Kuzma ($5,800), I'd still consider going back to him, especially against a Brooklyn team surrendering the third-most fantasy points to power forwards, per numberFire's DvP page. For $300 less, we can also look to Bobby Portis ($5,500). Portis has topped 27 fantasy points in six of his last nine efforts, and Toronto ranks sixth-worst against the position this season.

Honorable Mentions: The Bucks have been quite generous to power forwards lately -- top-seven in rebounds, made three-pointers, and blocks over their last 15 games -- which means Chris Boucher ($7,200) is in play. Boucher has amassed at least 36.7 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Bam Adebayo ($8,800) has salivating upside and is likely to be highly rostered, but he is facing a Kings team that's third-stingiest against power forwards in their last 15 games.

Shooting Guard

Studs to Consider: At shooting guard, we have James Harden ($11,000) and Fred VanVleet ($8,000) -- and then we have everyone else.

Harden has dropped at least 59.6 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, but he has also topped out at 63.9 during that stretch. Now, unless you plan to roster both Harden and Giannis (which can prove to be quite difficult), I'd prefer the one who has put up at least 65 in four straight. That said, the Beard is likely to be in fewer lineups than the Freak, so he could be a differentiator of sorts.

Meanwhile, VanVleet was one of the studs I covered as a target for tonight, especially if Lowry is out. FVV's salary is quite reasonable for a guy who has topped 50 fantasy points in 6 of his last 11 games, including twice against these very same Bucks.

Value Plays: Four of our model's top-eight point-per-dollar plays on tonight's slate are shooting guards. VanVleet is one of them, but we also have Tyrese Haliburton ($5,500), Donte DiVincenzo ($5,100), and Torrey Craig ($3,500).

Haliburton has eclipsed 27 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 games, and that includes 5 outputs of at least 32.9. The Heat have been tough on shooting guards lately (ninth-fewest fantasy points in their last 15 games), but the rookie is still worth considering on this small slate. Meanwhile, DiVincenzo has put up at least 25.6 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, and he would need 25.5 for a 5.0 value figure tonight.

Craig hasn't exceeded 6.2 FanDuel points in any of his last four games, so our model's projection of 20.1 seems a bit lofty.

One play who might be better than of the players I just mentioned is Tyler Herro ($6,100). Herro has racked up 43 and 42 FanDuel points in his last two games, and he has totaled at least 30.8 fantasy points in 9 of his 20 outings this season. However, the kicker is that he's going up against a Sacramento defense that ranks dead last against shooting guards this season.

Point Guard

Value Plays: I'm not particularly interested in paying up at point guard tonight, and instead I'll focus on the value options at the position.

Cory Joseph ($3,800) might be the best salary-saving option on the slate. In his last three games, Joseph has averaged 28.8 minutes while producing outputs of 21.7, 26.1, and 30.9 FanDuel points. At a salary of just $3,800, he would need only 19 fantasy points to return 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary).

In four of the last five games Anthony Davis has missed, Dennis Schroder ($5,700) has garnered 31.6, 35.9, 39.7, and 39.9 FanDuel points. That'll play. Tonight, Schroder will face a Brooklyn team that's giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to point guards over their last seven contests.

Dragic has yet to join the Heat on their road trip, so I'd guess he's out again tonight -- enter Kendrick Nunn ($5,100). Nunn is going up against a Sacramento backcourt that's allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season, according to FantasyPros. The 25-year-old has seen more than 30 minutes of action in 13 of his last 14 games, and he's had more than 30 fantasy points seven times during that stretch.

Studs to Consider: With Lowry's status in doubt, the two studs at point guard are Kyrie Irving ($9,600) and De'Aaron Fox ($8,300). Kyrie has had four outings with more than 50 fantasy points since Harden arrived, although he has topped 56 just once during those 13 games. I'd rather pay up for the upside of guys like LeBron, Giannis, Harden, or even VanVleet.

As for Fox, he's a much more intriguing play for me. The 23-year-old has recorded at least 43.9 FanDuel points in six of his last eight games, and that includes three outputs of more than 53. At tonight's salary, Fox would need just 41.5 fantasy points to return the baseline value figure we're looking for.

Center

The Roundup: There aren't many viable options at center tonight, but Hassan Whiteside ($6,000) has the potential to be one of the best values -- if not the best value -- on the slate. With Richaun Holmes out of the lineup on Monday, Whiteside exploded for 59.7 FanDuel points. Including that outing, Whiteside has now seen 17.7 or more minutes five times this season, and he's averaged 35.8 fantasy points in those contests.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,200) will be going up against the Nets -- the team that just surrendered the 59.7 fantasy points to Whiteside. In his last three games with AD out of the lineup, Harrell has posted 31.7, 32.3, and 33.6 FanDuel points, and his potential is immense in a matchup as titillating as this one.

If you don't want to dish out for either of those players, you can go with our model's top-projected value at the position -- Kelly Olynyk ($4,500).