NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/19/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Friday's main slate is nine games even with two postponements, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Devin Booker ($7,700) - Similar to last night, the Toronto Raptors should be a very popular team today as they prepare to play without Kyle Lowry and his 22% usage rate and 28% assist rate. That leaves Fred VanVleet as the player most likely to have the highest roster percentage among shooting guards on this slate, but it also opens the door for leverage with Booker in an outstanding matchup.

The New Orleans Pelicans allow top-10 numbers in points, assists, and three-pointers to shooting guards -- aligning well with Booker's recent scoring and distribution numbers. He has kept up his typical torrid scoring pace, averaging 28.0 points per game in his last six, but also has chipped in 6.5 assists per game, more than two over his season average.

As Booker has gotten ramped up after missing four games at the end of January with a hamstring injury, he has put any concerns to rest about Chris Paul or Deandre Ayton cutting into his offensive production. His offensive rating in his last seven games is eighth-best among all guards at an astounding 123.4 -- seven points higher than his season average.

Forward

Saddiq Bey ($5,800) - Bey represents a straight-line salary pivot from likely the uber-popular Norman Powell, but Bey has shown he can be a strong value option given his new role in the Detroit Pistons' offense.

With Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin no longer in the picture, Bey has been given big minutes, and the more opportunity he receives, the more he has been producing. Bey averages 32 minutes per game in his last three contests, which has translated to 36.0 FanDuel points per game, and he now faces the best possible matchup for small forwards.

The Memphis Grizzlies allow the most FanDuel points per game to the small forward position, including a league-high 24 points and three three-pointers per game. You may not have noticed, but Bey has made the 10th-most three pointers in the entire NBA over the last three games as coach Dwane Casey has given him the green light. That trend should continue tonight, especially if the Grizzlies are without defensive stopper Dillon Brooks.

Center

Rudy Gobert ($8,400) - This looks like a night to go all the way up or all the way down in terms of salary for center. All the way up you have Jokic, Embiid, and Nikola Vucevic making up an elite trio of centers. All the way down you have the chalky Guillermo Hernangomez ($4,400), who has been better than a FanDuel-point-per-minute producer in five of his last six games and should play heavy minutes tonight with Steven Adams probably out.

Gobert is still sitting at the high end of the mid-range despite scoring more than 42 FanDuel points in four of his last six games and posting a double-double in seven of his last eight. We know what to expect with Rudy in tournaments when he makes our roster: he just showed his upside when he torched the Los Angeles Clippers (tonight's opponent) for 54.5 FanDuel points on Wednesday, but he can also give us fewer than 30 points -- something the has done four times this season.

Our projections have Gobert continuing his recent stretch of double-doubles with 14 points, 12 rebounds and chipping in with a couple blocks to top it off.