4 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/3/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Stephen Curry First Basket Scorer (+390)
There's a sweet promo available on FanDuel Sportsbook where a $25-plus pre-live wager on a first basket scorer will get you $3 in bonus site credit for every three-pointer that your player makes in the game (up to $25). That's even if your selected pick isn't the first scorer. So, why not take advantage of someone who can make a ton of threes?
numberFire projects Stephen Curry for a slate-best 5.2 three-point makes to help with that nice bonus, and the +390 odds are a nice number regardless of the promo. He's made 34.3% of the field goals among Golden State Warriors starters, and assuming equal tip odds, he's a solid value.
James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Joe Harris All to Make 3+ Three-Pointers (+250)
This is getting boosted from +209 to +250, and numberFire projects them all for right around this number: 3.9 makes for Joe Harris, 3.1 for James Harden, and 2.8 for Kyrie Irving.
Harris has made at least three treys in 23 of 36 games (63.9%), Harden has done it in 17 of 22 games with the Brooklyn Nets (77.3%), and Kyrie has done it in 11 of 25 games (44.0%), so he's the one lagging behind, but without Kevin Durant, they're each projected to get very close to that mark at plus odds (+250).
Joe Harris Over 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
Joe Harris should get a lot of love on Super Trey Day, sure, but he's not just a one-dimensional player. Harris averages 14.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game (a total of 18.3) this season.
He is facing the Houston Rockets, who are last in the NBA in rebounding rate.
His per-minute rebounding rate doesn't change a ton with and without Kevin Durant, but numberFire projects him for 35.0 minutes tonight (and 4.6 rebounds). At his season-long rebounding rate of 0.12 boards per minute, that adds up to 4.2 boards before even accounting for Houston's weak rebounding stats. In his games against other bottom-five rebounding teams, Harris has ticked up to 0.15 rebounds per minute (5.3 over his projected 35.0 minutes).
And as for the scoring, he's projected by numberFire for 14.2 points (plus the 4.6 boards for 18.8 total points and rebounds). The Rockets are top-10 in three-point attempt rate allowed (meaning they are top-10 at defending the three) but are only average at defending corner threes.
Steven Adams Over 8.5 Rebounds (-134)
Steven Adams has hauled in 15, 13, 6, and 11 rebounds over his four games since returning from an ankle injury, so that alone is good news for his rebounding prop here. He has averaged 9.2 rebounds per game overall on the season.
The minutes are rarely elite for Adams (averaging 28.1 and projected for 30.1 tonight), but he does clean the glass at a high level (0.33 rebounds per minute). That rate would net him 9.9 boards over his projected minutes and still 9.3 at his season average of minutes.
The Chicago Bulls are an above-average rebounding team, pulling in 51.1% of available rebounds (ranking 11th in the NBA). That's not an outlier number by any means, though, so we shouldn't have to worry much. They let up 14.3 rebounds per 48 minutes to opposing centers (0.30 per minute), so even at Adams' projected workload, that's 9.0 rebounds without accounting for Adams' superior rate himself.
