NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 3/4/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
PORSAC238.0-4.5121.25118.67125.130
MILMEM234.5-6.0120.25122.84108.19
LACWSH235.0-5.5120.25126.42116.126
SACPOR238.04.5116.75115.29121.128
PHXGS224.0-6.5115.25118.28104.93
DENIND225.5-4.0114.75122.35109.510
NOMIA227.0-2.5114.75121.66106.76
WSHLAC235.05.5114.75106.822111.816
MEMMIL234.56.0114.25109.120110.613
SAOKC218.5-6.5112.50110.917108.18
MIANO227.02.5112.25103.825122.329
INDDEN225.54.0110.75110.418113.218
GSPHX224.06.5108.75107.521106.77
NYDET210.5-7.0108.75104.724113.017
OKCSA218.56.5106.098.928110.412
DETNY210.57.0101.75105.223105.85
BOSTORN/A-8.0N/A113.113110.814
TORBOSN/A8.0N/A113.912111.615

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace. Remember, these are now showing just 2020-21 stats, so things get a little out of whack because of a smaller sample.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
MIL MEM 103.1 3 102.1 8 102.6 115.5 118.5
MEM MIL 102.1 8 103.1 3 102.6 109.8 112.7
LAC WSH 97.7 29 105.6 1 101.7 121.3 123.3
WSH LAC 105.6 1 97.7 29 101.7 109.3 111.1
PHX GS 98.1 28 105.0 2 101.5 111.5 113.2
GS PHX 105.0 2 98.1 28 101.5 107.1 108.7
SA OKC 100.3 16 101.7 10 101.0 109.5 110.6
OKC SA 101.7 10 100.3 16 101.0 104.7 105.7
POR SAC 99.7 22 102.4 6 101.0 121.9 123.1
SAC POR 102.4 6 99.7 22 101.0 118.1 119.3
BOS TOR 99.7 21 100.6 15 100.1 112.0 112.1
TOR BOS 100.6 15 99.7 21 100.1 112.7 112.9
DEN IND 98.7 27 101.5 11 100.1 115.9 116.0
IND DEN 101.5 11 98.7 27 100.1 111.8 111.9
NO MIA 100.0 18 99.0 26 99.5 114.1 113.6
MIA NO 99.0 26 100.0 18 99.5 113.1 112.5
NY DET 97.3 30 99.3 24 98.3 108.8 107.0
DET NY 99.3 24 97.3 30 98.3 105.5 103.7

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BOS TOR 0.95 (13) 0.88 (20) 0.87 (15) 1.00 (25) 1.11 (15)
DEN IND 0.97 (17) 0.85 (11) 0.85 (8) 0.97 (20) 1.17 (24)
DET NY 0.94 (8) 0.84 (6) 0.79 (2) 0.86 (3) 1.17 (25)
GS PHX 0.87 (1) 0.80 (2) 0.80 (3) 0.90 (6) 1.06 (7)
IND DEN 0.92 (3) 0.87 (15) 0.92 (26) 0.92 (10) 0.94 (2)
LAC WSH 1.06 (29) 0.85 (12) 0.88 (18) 0.98 (24) 1.24 (29)
MEM MIL 0.93 (5) 0.83 (4) 0.91 (25) 0.95 (15) 1.12 (17)
MIA NO 1.01 (24) 0.93 (26) 0.92 (27) 0.92 (11) 1.07 (8)
MIL MEM 0.99 (22) 0.85 (8) 0.93 (28) 0.91 (9) 1.08 (9)
NO MIA 0.94 (7) 0.86 (13) 0.87 (13) 0.97 (18) 0.98 (4)
NY DET 0.95 (10) 0.86 (14) 0.80 (5) 1.08 (30) 1.11 (16)
OKC SA 1.05 (28) 0.85 (9) 0.87 (14) 0.94 (14) 1.10 (13)
PHX GS 0.94 (9) 0.84 (7) 0.89 (22) 1.00 (27) 1.13 (21)
POR SAC 0.97 (18) 0.98 (30) 0.90 (24) 1.01 (28) 1.16 (23)
SA OKC 0.96 (14) 0.84 (5) 0.97 (30) 0.97 (19) 1.15 (22)
SAC POR 1.01 (26) 0.96 (29) 0.81 (6) 0.94 (13) 1.09 (10)
TOR BOS 0.94 (6) 0.85 (10) 0.86 (9) 0.89 (5) 1.13 (20)
WSH LAC 0.95 (12) 0.91 (24) 0.78 (1) 0.85 (2) 1.04 (5)