FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 3/15/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's eight-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic ($10,200) - I outlined Doncic as a key play in today's studs to target column. We haven't seen Luka at a lower salary than what he's at tonight in over a calendar year, and despite his "underwhelming" play of late, he's still plenty capable of breaking a slate. Doncic hasn't reached 60 FanDuel points in any of his last eight games, but he doesn't need to do that at tonight's salary -- he only needs 51 fantasy points for 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). In a matchup that has the third-highest over/under on the slate, the 22-year-old will be taking on a Los Angeles Clippers team that's ceded the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over their last 15 games, according to FantasyPros.

Other Studs to Consider (in order of preference):
LaMelo Ball ($8,500) - Charlotte has the second-highest implied total and Sacramento is second-worst against point guards over their last 15 games. Ball has 46.8-plus in three of his last five.
De'Aaron Fox ($9,000) - Has 47.3-plus FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings. Hornets are eighth-worst against the position throughout their last 15 contests.
Russell Westbrook ($10,200) - Erupted for 72 FanDuel points against Milwaukee on Saturday. Has eclipsed 50 in 7 of his last 11 efforts.

Value Play

Jrue Holiday ($5,800) - Considering the slate-high 241 over/under, targeting the matchup between the Bucks and Washington Wizards will be a theme tonight. numberFire's models project Holiday to be the best value play at point tonight. Holiday pegged the Wizards for 38.1 FanDuel points in 32.2 minutes on Saturday -- his first game with more than 25.4 minutes and 26.9 fantasy points since he returned from the COVID list. He shouldn't have trouble putting together another excellent performance versus a team that ranks 29th against point guards in 2020-21, according to numberFire's DvP tool.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Chris Paul ($6,800) - Has recorded 33.5-plus fantasy 22 times this season, including 36.7 or more in 16 of his last 24. Our model's third-best projected value at point guard.
Derrick White ($5,300) - Posted 44.8 FanDuel points yesterday. numberFire's second-best projected point-per-dollar play at the position.
Delon Wright ($5,700) - Excluding his first game back from injury, Wright has managed at least 29.8 fantasy points in eight of his last nine outings. San Antonio is 27th against point guards this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Devin Booker ($7,500) - Of all the shooting guards with a salary above $5,200 tonight, no one is projected to return a better value figure than Booker. The 24-year-old has posted 32 or more FanDuel points in 14 of his last 15 games, and that includes 7 outputs of more than 40. With the Phoenix Suns carrying the fourth-highest implied total tonight, Booker will square off against a Memphis Grizzlies team that's 11th-worst against the position over their last 15 games.

Other Studs to Consider:
James Harden ($11,300) - Tough matchup for the most expensive player on tonight's slate. New York ranks dead last in pace and second in defensive efficiency among the teams playing tonight.
Paul George ($7,900) - Has been hit or miss lately. Dallas has allowed the 10th-most points to two-guards over their last 15 games.

Value Play

Caris LeVert ($4,100) - LeVert is -- by far -- our model's top-projected value on the entire slate. For reference, he's predicted to return a value figure of 8.67 -- the next-closest player is at 6.99. LeVert returned in a brutal matchup on Saturday against the Suns and posted 20.4 fantasy points in 26.9 minutes. The matchup tonight is nowhere near as difficult, as the Denver Nuggets rank 14th against the position this season. LeVert didn't have a minutes restriction on Saturday, so there's no reason to think that he'll have one tonight.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options to Consider:
Immanuel Quickley ($4,600) - Has topped 35 fantasy points in two of his last four. Our model's third-best projected value on the slate.
Rodney McGruder ($3,500) - Has had 19.5, 29.4, and 37.1 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Should get a sizable workload with Detroit down Dennis Smith, Wayne Ellington, and Hamidou Diallo.
Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500) - Accumulated 32.1 fantasy points against Washington on Saturday. Has 24.5-plus in 8 of his last 12.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James ($10,500) - While the Los Angeles Lakers play at the seventh-slowest pace of all the teams taking the court tonight, the Golden State Warriors come in second-fastest -- that's a boost for LeBron's fantasy outlook. King James underwhelmed in his first game out of the break, with just 36.6 fantasy points, but it's worth remembering that he had recorded at least 56.3 in three of the five games prior to the break. This matchup is not one to shy away from, as Golden State ranks 21st against the position this season.

Other Studs to Consider:
Khris Middleton ($7,400) - Pegged the Wizards for 41 FanDuel points on Saturday. Washington is allowing the most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,100) - Has maxed out at 50.3 FanDuel points in 13 of his last 14 games. Dallas is eighth-worst versus small forwards in their last 15 contests.
Gordon Hayward ($7,400) - Sacramento is 23rd against the position this season. Hayward has as high a ceiling as anyone in his salary range.

Value Play

Mikal Bridges ($5,000) - Bridges has been hit-or-miss this season, but tonight should be one of those games where he goes off. On the season, the Grizzlies have given up the second-most fantasy points to small forwards. Mikal has gone up against Memphis twice this season, and he recorded 32.7 and 34.6 FanDuel points in those outings. Bridges is numberFire's top-projected point-per-dollar play at the position.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Joe Harris ($4,100) - Has put up at least 20.6 fantasy points 24 times this season. Needs 20.5 FanDuel points for 5X tonight. numberFire's projection is 22.0.
Saddiq Bey ($4,600) - Has eclipsed 24 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 13. Our model has him posting 23.7 tonight.
RJ Barrett ($5,700) - Brooklyn is fourth-worst against small forwards over their last 15 games. Barrett has at least 29 fantasy points in five of his last six.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) - Sixteen teams are taking the court tonight, and none play at a faster pace than the Wizards, who also have the second-worst defensive efficiency on the slate. That's all great news for fantasy's leading-scorer. Giannis is averaging 60.8 FanDuel points per game over the last four weeks, and he should be a great way to get exposure to Milwaukee's slate-high 125.0 over/under tonight.

Other Studs to Consider:
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) - Denver ranks 10th-worst against power forwards over their last 15 games. Sabonis has amassed at least 46 FanDuel points in three straight.
Julius Randle ($9,200) - Power forward isn't Brooklyn's defensive weakness, but Randle's upside keeps him in play. He's surpassed 50 fantasy points in four of his last six.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100) - Has accrued 45.3 and 45.7 fantasy points in his last two. The matchup gets easier if Serge Ibaka (back spasms) is out.

Value Play

Bobby Portis ($4,000) - The Wizards have ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to power forwards and second-most to opposing centers this season, which makes this a great spot for Portis. The 26-year-old accumulated 27.1 FanDuel points against Washington on Saturday -- it was the fourth time in his last seven games that he'd recorded 26.6-plus. He's numberFire's second-best projected point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Kyle Kuzma ($5,600) - Has exploded for 42.1 and 45.1 fantasy points in his last two games. Golden State is eighth-worst against power forwards in 2020-21.
Dario Saric ($4,100) - Has topped 20 FanDuel points in six of his last eight. Our algorithm has him posting 24.8 tonight.
Nicolas Claxton ($3,800) - Has at least 21.6 fantasy points in four of his last six efforts. Knicks are 24th against centers this season.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic ($11,000) - numberFire's algorithm has Jokic outscoring the next-closest center on this slate by 15.1 FanDuel points, so he is undoubtedly in play. The Serbian is fantasy's second-leading scorer, behind only Giannis. Jokic has put up at least 55 FanDuel points 25 times this season, and he should certainly be able to reach (or surpass) that total in tonight's matchup. On the season, the Indiana Pacers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the opposition's centers.

Other Stud to Consider:
Richaun Holmes ($6,700) - Has topped 35 fantasy points in five of his last eight, including in three straight. Hornets rank 17th versus the five position this season.

Value Play

James Wiseman ($3,900) - The rookie has totaled 20.4, 22.8, and 30.2 FanDuel points in his last three games, and he'll be taking on a Lakers team that will be without Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol on the interior. With a projection of 23.6 fantasy points, numberFire's algorithm has Wiseman as the top point-per-dollar play at the position.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
DeAndre Jordan ($4,600) - Has at least 24.5 FanDuel points in five of his last eight. Knicks are 24th against centers in 2020-21.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,900) - Has garnered 33.8-plus fantasy points in five of his last eight, including two in a row without Gasol in the lineup. Golden State comes in 23rd against the position this campaign.