3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 3/26/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Gordon Hayward Over 1.5 Made Threes (-136)
One of the things I love to do with prop bets is to check out the made three-pointers props for players who are going up against teams that allow a ton of three-point attempts. Doing that today led me to this prop.
Gordon Hayward is taking on a Miami Heat squad that permits more three-point tries than any other team, surrendering a league-high three-point attempt rate of 46.5%. We attacked Miami yesterday with C.J. McCollum, who ended up hitting six three-balls in the first half, crushing his made threes prop.
Hayward is shooting it well recently, nailing multiple triples in three straight and going 8 for 13 from deep in that span. He went 2 for 4 from three in his lone matchup with Miami this season.
Our model projects Hayward for 1.9 made threes tonight.
Mason Plumlee Under 10.5 Points (-108)
The Detroit Pistons have a superb matchup tonight against the Brooklyn Nets -- there's no denying that. But the line on Mason Plumlee's points prop is a smidge too high, per our algorithm.
Over the last five games, Plumlee has scored 11-plus points only twice, and both times were 12-point outings. In that five-game span, he's taken six or fewer shots in four contests and has just a 15.0% usage rate.
For the season, Brooklyn has been a sieve defensively. Opposing centers have enjoyed the matchup as the Nets give up 23.3 points per game to the five spot. But they've been tougher on the position recently, allowing 20.2 points per game across their last 15 outings and 19.7 over the past seven games.
We project Plumlee to net just 9.6 points tonight.
Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+108)
The New Orleans Pelicans are another team that gives up a bunch of three-point tries, and that's who Nikola Jokic takes on tonight.
New Orleans allows a three-point attempt rate of 44.9%, the third-highest in the league. Centers try an average of 4.0 three-pointers per game against the Pels, the second-most. While Jokic isn't a high-volume three-point guy, he has attempted multiple treys in four straight. He's hoisted at least four shots from beyond the arc in three of those four games, making exactly two triples in three of them.
Our projections are dead even with this line as we have Jokic draining 1.5 three-pointers. Given the +108 odds on the over -- compared to -132 on the under -- I lean toward the over.
