NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 3/29/21: Can the Knicks Finally Beat the Heat?

Even with a lot of games, the betting market seems a bit tight. Where should we be looking then?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Miami Heat at New York Knicks

These teams played twice in three days back in February, and it was the Miami Heat who won both games. The first game, on February 7th, was a 109-103 win for Miami (a total of 212 points). Then, two days later, the Heat won again 98-96 (a total of 194).

Across that two-game sample, the New York Knicks put forth a lowly offensive rating of 106.4, and the Heat boasted a 110.7 offensive rating, right around the league average. What also stood out is a slow pace of 93.5 in these two games. For context, the Knicks are last at 96.7 on the full season, and the Heat are also bottom three.

We should expect this one to play slow, and the fewer the possessions, the tighter the game should be if teams are close to equal.

Over the past 15 games, the Knicks boast a top-12 net rating of +1.7. The Heat are nearly dead average at +0.2.

Of course, the Knicks are without Mitchell Robinson and could be without Julius Randle, which has dropped their net rating to a -5.4 when both are off the court. However, as a bit of a control, the Knicks without those two frontcourt players but with RJ Barrett have been a respectable -0.4.

Our algorithm, then, really likes the Knicks to keep this game within the 4-point spread, rating it as 66.7% likely.

The betting public is hammering the under here, too, with 15% of the tickets but a whopping 43% of the money coming in on the under, per oddsFire. The total is down from 208.5 to 206.0.

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

These two teams haven't played yet this year but will meet three times by the end of the season, including two games within the next three days.

Even with a lack of head-to-head action here, the betting public and our algorithm are in agreement anyway on the San Antonio Spurs' spread (-2.5) against the Sacramento Kings.

An even 62% of the tickets and money are on the Spurs to cover that spread, according to oddsFire, and there's also a slight majority of action (just over 52% of each) on the Spurs' moneyline for an outright win (-142).

numberFire's algorithm considers the Spurs' spread 65.1% likely to occur, which implies a 24.3% expected return on investment.

It views San Antonio as 75.6% likely to win outright, which is good for an expected return of 28.7%.

Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors

Two bets in particular stand out in this game.

The first is the Golden State Warriors (+2.5) to cover, which our algorithm likes and is getting about equal treatment from the betting public as the other side.

Stephen Curry has missed five straight games but has been upgraded to questionable to play tonight after a full practice on Sunday. That would make a ton of difference because the Warriors have a net rating of +2.0 with Curry and a -6.6 net rating without Curry.

But it's important to keep in mind that the Chicago Bulls are only 6-9 over their past 15 games with a net rating of just -1.5 themselves. Golden State with Curry should certainly be able to cover.

The algorithm and public also agree on the over at 224.5, which may be the safer play overall.

There has been 59% of tickets and 64% of money on the over, according to oddsFire, and our algorithm rates it as a three-star recommendation out of five.

In all, the over is 59.0% likely to hit, per our algorithm, leading to an expected return of 12.6%.