NBA Betting Guide for 3/30/21: Sifting Through All 4 Games on Tuesday
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
Our algorithm is finding minimal value in this game in the form of the Washington Wizards +3.5 and the over (228.5), rating both just one-star recommendations out of five.
The Charlotte Hornets actually have some impressive splits with Terry Rozier on the floor without LaMelo Ball, as their net rating shifts from -6.5 with both to +2.6 with Rozier and without Ball.
The betting public is backing the Hornets spread (-3.5) by way of 51% of the betting tickets but 63% of the money, which goes against the algorithm.
The closest spot of agreement is the over at 228.5; the public is putting a slight majority of tickets (53%) and money (52%) on the over. I'd lean toward the over first rather than the spread.
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets
The public is taking some strong stands on this game, focusing on the Denver Nuggets' spread (-5.0) by way of 75% of the money and the moneyline (-210) with 80% of the money.
Once more, our algorithm is on the opposite side of this, preferring the Philadelphia 76ers to keep it within five points 56.5% of the time.
There's agreement on the over, though, at 221.0 points. Our algorithm views it 53.9% likely to hit, and the betting public has put 78% of the tickets and 79% of the money on the over to come through.
The 76ers without Joel Embiid but with Ben Simmons have a net rating of just -3.4, but they are 3-2 in games with Simmons and without Embiid. They've maintained a strong net rating of +8.1 over the past eight games without Embiid.
Once again, I'd be most comfortable with the over rather than the clashing trends from the algorithm and betting public.
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers
The public is hammering the Los Angeles Clippers in this game. There is 89% of the money on their side of the spread (-10.0) and 98% of the money on their moneyline (-770).
That moneyline implies an 88.5% win probability, which is not quite as high as our algorithm's estimate of 85.2%, but it's hard to get on board with backing an Orlando Magic team that did what they did at the trade deadline -- even at +530 on the moneyline.
Their early returns aren't promising: they've got a -5.2 net rating in two games since the deadline.
It's getting redundant at this point, but the intersection of the algorithm and betting trends are on the over (which opened at 217.5 but is down to 214.5). Our algorithm views it as a one-star recommendation, and there are equal 57% marks on the over's tickets and money.
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns' moneyline (-250) is easily the algorithm's favorite play of the night, rating it a four-star recommendation out of five and giving the Suns an 81.1% chance to win this game. The -250 odds imply a 71.4% probability, so that is yielding an expected return of 13.5%.
The betting public is all over Phoenix, too. Of all moneyline bets, 91% of the money has preferred the Suns.
The spread (Phoenix -5.5, down a point from the open) is also getting some public love by way of more than 75% of the tickets and money. Our algorithm rates the spread as a two-star recommendation out of five and just outright projects the Suns to win this game by 9.6 points.
Our algo finds no value on the over, but (as usual) the betting trends are coming in on the over at 220.5, which is down two points from the open.
It's looking like a night to lean on the overs and the Suns.