NBA Betting Guide for 4/5/21: Key Injuries Lead to Betting Value on Monday
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves
The Sacramento Kings are getting better injury luck in this game, as the Minnesota Timberwolves are listing Ricky Rubio, Malik Beasley, and D'Angelo Russell as doubtful. The Kings have Marvin Bagley III out and Hassan Whiteside questionable.
With Karl-Anthony Towns on the court as a control but without the other three players listed above, the Timberwolves' offensive rating falls to 106.5 over a 180-minute sample along with a defensive rating of 109.2 -- for a net rating of -2.7.
So it should be a tight game, and numberFire's algorithm is leaning toward trusting the shorthanded Timberwolves, rating Minnesota +4.5 as a three-star recommendation out of five.
The algo likes Minnesota outright by the slimmest of margins (0.05 points) and rates Minnesota +4.5 as 64.0% likely to occur. That leads to an expected return of 22.2%.
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets
The algorithm is somewhat keen on the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets game overall, finding two-star recommendations across the total (over 216.5), the spread (Knicks +5.0), and the moneyline (Knicks +188).
Let's start with the over/under. The Nets have gone over in 58.0% of their games, the fifth-highest rate in the NBA, and the Knicks? Not so much: just 38.0% of their games, the second-lowest rate in the NBA.
Yes, the Knicks have a good defense (they're fourth in adjusted defensive rating on the season), but the Nets have outperformed their opponent's defensive rating in 74.0% of their games, the second-highest rate in the league.
Now, the Nets are possibly without James Harden and certainly without Kevin Durant but still manage 120.5 points per 100 possessions with Kyrie Irving while those two other stars are off the floor. Notably, over that 250.0-minute sample, that comes with a strong defensive rating of 106.2.
Our algorithm is projecting a median point total of 219.9.
It also sees the Knicks keeping it within 5.0 points 62.4% of the time, for an expected return of 19.1%, and for them to win outright 44.2% of the time, good for an expected return of 29.9% on the +188 moneyline.
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
The Washington Wizards are listing both Bradley Beal and Rui Hachimura as questionable for this game, which would have huge ramifications. Their splits with Russell Westbrook on the floor but without Beal and Hachimura are pretty damning: a 96.4 offensive rating, a 111.4 defensive rating, and a -15.1 net rating.
The Toronto Raptors have shifted from 4.5-point favorites to 5.0-point favorites within the hour and are still good values there, according to our algorithm. It views Toronto as 62.0% likely to cover that new spread and 81.7% likely to win outright; both bets offer expected returns north of 18.0%.
But even without those two guards, the Raptors -- while Pascal Siakam is on the floor -- have a +28.5 net rating over 78.0 minutes (from a 127.8 offensive rating and a 99.4 defensive rating).
Is that sample too small to trust? Yes.
After we get more time in the split, is it likely to be on par with a -15.1 net rating the Wizards have without Beal and Hachimura while Russ is running the show? Not even close.
The on/off splits here are pointing toward the Raptors holding court at "home."