NBA Betting Guide for 4/6/21: 3 Overs the Data and Public Like Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers
We're seeing some smart money being placed on the over -- currently 226.0 -- in this Central Division matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers. There have been just 34% of the bets on the over but 53% of the money, a gap of 19 points, one of the largest on the board across any bet on any game.
The action has moved the total, which has risen from 224.5 to 226.0, but our algorithm is still seeing some value on it.
The median projected score in this game, according to our simulations, is 117.1 to 112.1, a total of 229.2. The projected number is getting close to the actual total, so keep an eye on where it goes from there.
The Pacers have been surprisingly over-friendly, as 60.4% of their games have hit the over on the closing over/under at FanDuel Sportsbook this season. That rate is second-highest in the NBA.
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks
The only team that has hit the over at a higher rate than the Pacers is the New Orleans Pelicans (65.3%). The Atlanta Hawks have done it in exactly 50.0% of their games.
We're seeing more sharp money on the over here (currently 228.5), as well. That includes a majority of tickets (64%) already -- paired with 80% of the money.
Our algorithm calculates a median projected score of 117.2 to 114.4 in this one -- for a total of 231.6. It's viewing the over as 56.7% likely, which indicates an expected return of 8.3% on wagers.
The Pelicans had Lonzo Ball back last game but are listing Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram as questionable; they've each missed three straight. Though their offensive rating with Ball but without Williamson and Ingram falls to 105.9, their defensive rating inflates to 120.0.
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Our algorithm is viewing the over (221.5) as just a one-star recommendation out of five for this matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics and sees it only 53.1% likely to hit.
But that slight majority is paired with hefty betting volume on the over: 69% of the tickets and 75% of the money.
Despite the action, the over/under is trending down from 223.0 at the open to 221.5.
Each team in this game has hit the over in exactly half of their games on the season but are each top-13 in offensive rating over the past 15 games. That includes a lot of time without Joel Embiid, who is not on the injury report tonight. Philly's offensive rating with Embiid is 118.2.
