NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/7/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jayson Tatum Under 6.5 Rebounds (-122)

I really like Jayson Tatum to go over his 2.5 three-point makes, but the juice on it is up to -148 against a New York Knicks team that allows a high rate of three-point attempts.

So I'll instead look to the under 6.5 on his rebounding prop because the Knicks are a top-10 rebounding team on the season in terms of rebounding rate.

They also allow just 8.5 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, the second-lowest number in the NBA, and are also top-eight in keeping frontcourt players off the glass overall on a per-game basis.

Tatum's per-minute rebounding rate is 0.19 on the season. That drops to 0.17 against top-10 rebounding teams. At his projected minutes rate of 35.7, that puts him on par for 6.0 rebounds. The tough matchup should keep him shy of seven.

Aleksej Pokusevski Over 5.5 Rebounds (-106)

Aleksej Pokusevski is projected for 6.2 boards tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, according to our algorithm.

Charlotte is dead average in rebounding rate on the season at 50.0% but are 21st in rebounds per game allowed to opposing frontcourts, which bodes well for an over.

Pokusevski averages 0.22 boards per minute against top-10 opponents, actually a higher rate than his overall average of 0.19, so we can't really knock him for the matchup at all.

We are projecting him for 31.7 minutes, so even the full-season rate of 0.19 would get him over 6.0.

His props don't really jive with our projections much at all, either. Primarily, he's projected for 11.7 points, and you can bet under 13.5 at -122 odds.

Deandre Ayton Over 9.5 Rebounds (-104)

Let's stick with a third rebounding prop. Why not?

numberFire's outright projection for Ayton's rebounding tally is 10.6, so you can see why I started to dig in deeper here. At his 30.5 projected minutes, he'd need 0.29 rebounds per minute to get to 10 and thus the over.

The Utah Jazz sit second in the NBA in rebounding rate at 52.9%. However, against top-10 rebounding teams, Deandre Ayton averages 0.31 rebounds per minute, a shift from his 0.35 on the full season but still above that 0.29 mark needed at his projected minutes total.

Of note, Ayton collected 9 rebounds over 28.3 minutes against the Jazz earlier this season (0.32 per minute). Yes, that's under 9.5 in total, but we are projecting him for more minutes than that tonight, so double-digit boards seem in the cards.