3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/8/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Zach LaVine Over 2.5 Made Threes (-188)
Our model likes Zach LaVine to bury at least three triples tonight against the Toronto Raptors.
Toronto is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 44.0%, the third-highest in the league. The Raps permit 10.5 three-point tries per game to shooting guards. LaVine is a high-volume shooter, taking 8.0 triples per game this season after attempting 8.1 per night a year ago. In short, he should be bombing away today.
LaVine has hit at least three three-pointers in three of his last seven games, and he's taken at least seven threes in five of his past seven outings. We project LaVine to hit 3.4 triples, so while the -188 line on the over isn't all that sexy, it's the play.
De'Aaron Fox Under 27.5 Points (-102)
Our projections are high on De'Aaron Fox tonight, but this line of 27.5 points is a bit much.
While the Detroit Pistons are a very meh defense overall -- 21st in defensive efficiency -- they've been good against point guards. Opposing floor generals are averaging just 23.0 points per game against Detroit, the fourth-fewest. Over the last 30 games, that clip drops to 22.6 per night.
Fox has gone for at least 28 points only once in his last five games. Our model projects him for 26.6 points tonight.
Norman Powell Over 3.5 Rebounds (+124)
Norman Powell has snagged at least three rebounds in each of his last five games, including exactly four boards in two straight. He's also logging heavy minutes, seeing at least 31 minutes in three of the Portland Trail Blazers' last four games.
Powell and the Blazers are taking on the Utah Jazz. Utah is an excellent rebounding team, sporting the second-best rebounding rate (52.3%). But they've been middle of the pack in terms of allowing boards to small forwards (7.5 per night, which ranks 16th).
We project Powell for 3.6 rebounds, so we agree with this line. There is value on the over, though, as it's priced at +124, while the under is at -152.
