NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 4/9/21: Is the Wizards/Warriors Total Too High?

The over/under launched at 241.0 for the game in Golden State. What do the betting trends and data say about it?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks

Our algorithm isn't identifying a ton of glaring value spots on this slate of games, but there are, of course, still a few.

It really likes the New York Knicks in this one when accounting for the spread. Though the Knicks are 1.5-point underdogs at home, our median projection is a 109.6-107.2 win for them outright. Our algorithm also views them as 59.1% likely to win the game straight up.

That makes the Knicks +1.5 a three-star recommendation out of five, per our model, and the Knicks' moneyline (+102) a two-star recommendation. Each wager comes with an expected return of at least 18.8%.

The past 15 games have both teams top-12 in net rating with the Knicks at +1.9 and the Memphis Grizzlies at +2.6. The Grizzlies jump up to a +6.6 over the past 10 with the Knicks at +4.9, both top-8 marks. This is despite the Grizzlies going 7-3 over that stretch and the Knicks just 4-6, so the win/loss record might be a little misleading here for New York.

Overall, the teams are close on the full season and in the recent data. Accounting for matchup and home-court, the algorithm likes the Knicks.

The Knicks' moneyline is also seeing 61% of the bets and money, via oddsFire.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics

I don't really like betting lopsided moneylines, but given the rest of the schedule, it's worth digging into here.

The Boston Celtics are -405 to win outright. Those odds imply an 80.2% win probability. numberFire's algorithm gives Boston an 86.5% chance to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, which actually makes the recommendation a four-star bet out of five.

The median projected score, per our model, is 120.7-108.5, a 12.2-point gap. That, then, also makes Boston -8.5 a two-star recommendation. The model anticipates Boston winning by 9 or more 61.7% of the time, leading to an expected return of 17.7%.

The betting public is showing very little love for Minnesota in this game. They are receiving just 5% of the money on the moneyline in this one -- and a more reasonable 37% to cover the spread.

Overall, the betting public and model are both heavy on the Celtics to take care of business and get over .500 with a 27th win of the season.

Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors

The over/under in this game launched initially at 241.0, and it's yo-yoed a bit before settling on 239.5 for now -- down 1.5 points from the open.

The betting trends are super heavy on the under in this game: we're seeing 78% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the under.

numberFire's algorithm suggests that the under is a one-star recommendation after projecting a median point total of 236.3. My model is even heavier on the under once adjusting for opponent strength, and what's more, these two teams aren't frequently hitting overs anyway.

The Washington Wizards have gone over in 50.0% of their games, and the Golden State Warriors have done it in just 41.2%, the fifth-lowest mark in the NBA.

These two teams certainly feel like high-scoring, uptempo squads, but the offensive efficiency doesn't really track, and both sides are actually bottom-six in offensive rating over the past 15 games. Even Golden State's over the past five (because Stephen Curry has been out) ranks only 23rd.