NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 4/12/21: 3 Over/Unders to Bet Tonight

Which game totals are exploitable on Monday's slate of NBA games?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic

The betting public and our algorithm are in agreement on the over/under in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Orlando Magic.

We're seeing 57% of the betting tickets placed on on the under, so that's already a majority, but we're also looking at 80% of the overall money on the over/under in this game going on the under. That's a massive 23-point gap between the two, indicating some smart money on the under. At that rate, we could see the number trend down, as it's already done from 220.5 to 219.5.

numberFire's algorithm is projecting a median point total of just 215.5, so we have some wiggle room. My model has a median total of 211.0, as well.

Over the past 10 games, the Spurs are just 15th in offensive rating at 111.9, and the Magic are 29th at a dreadful 103.7. Their defenses haven't been good, but the Magic also have outperformed their opponent's defensive rating in just 30.2% of their games this season -- without accounting for their fire sale at the trade deadline.

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

The algorithm is rating the over (232.5) as a two-star recommendation out of five for this tilt between the 22-31 Sacramento Kings and 24-29 New Orleans Pelicans. The median projected point total is 237.5, again leaving us breathing room from the current total.

If you like over/under team trends, you'll like this one: the Pelicans have hit the over on the closing over/under at FanDuel Sportsbook in an NBA-high 64.2% of their games this season. The Kings have done it in 54.7% of their games, a top-eight rate.

The majority of betting tickets (55%) and money (64%) are on the over for this game, as well, meaning the team trends, algorithm, and betting public are in alignment for this game to rack up at least 233.0 points.

Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz

Here's another under pick at the line of 234.5, one with a lot of agreement overall once again.

We're seeing an equal 63% of the money and tickets going on the under in this game, according to oddsFire, and our algorithm is seeing enough value on that to give it at least a one-star nod out of five. That's not substantial in itself, but plenty else points to an under.

Utah Jazz games this season have gone over the posted total at an okay-not-great rate of 47.2% this season, and the Washington Wizards are right at 50.0%.

The Wizards are down to a 103.9 offensive rating over the past 10 games but are actually keeping it a little tighter defensively with a 108.9 defensive rating in that split. The Jazz are allowing only 104.6 points per 100 over their past 10, as well, while scoring 118.2 of their own.

Using full-season, opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, my model anticipated an over/under of around 229.0, and using the past 10 games as the sample, the expected total falls to 223.5, given that each side is top-eight in defensive rating in that span.

numberFire's algorithm is rating the under as a one-star bet, deeming it 52.7% likely to occur.