NBA Betting Guide for 4/14/21: Why the Spurs and Raptors Total Is Appealing
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
We're seeing some alignment between what numberFire's algorithm says and what the betting public is doing with regards to this game's over/under.
numberFire's algorithm is rating the over at 221.5 as a two-star recommendation out of five. Our simulations indicate that the over is 59.1% likely to occur, and the median projected score for this game comes out to 225.8 points. In total, the expected return on an over bet is 12.8%.
The betting public, via oddsFire, has been on the over by way of 66% of the betting tickets and 80% of the money. So we're seeing both a majority of the action on the over as well as a smart money disparity of 14 points.
Both of these teams on the season have hit the over in a majority of their games, 51.9% for the San Antonio Spurs and 54.5% for the Toronto Raptors.
Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons
The spread in this game is trending down. The Detroit Pistons opened as 10.5-point underdogs, and that number is now 8.0.
The Los Angeles Clippers are listing Kawhi Leonard out for the third straight game. That remains the case for Patrick Beverley, as well.
Without Leonard and Beverley -- but with Paul George on the court -- the Clippers still boast a +4.9-point net rating. That falls to -5.1 when George is also off the floor, which will be the case for around 14.5 minutes, based on our minutes projection for George tonight.
The Pistons are at least showing some life with a -3.0 net rating over their past 15 games, ultimately leading to a 6-9 record. Their point differential in that game is -3.7.
Our algorithm is rating the Pistons +8.0 as a three-star rating out of five and sees them keeping it that close 60.7% of the time.
New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans
We're seeing some mostly equal money on both sides of this game in terms of both the spread and moneyline.
While 40% of the betting tickets are on the New York Knicks to cover the spread (+2.5), we're seeing 49% of the money on them to do so, which is a small-but-nice differential to see.
Our algorithm is rating New York +2.5 as just a one-star recommendation, but there are reasons to see the gap as a bit larger.
The New Orleans Pelicans' net rating falls from +0.2 to -1.9 without Lonzo Ball, who is doubtful. Meanwhile, the Knicks are up to a +4.8 net rating over their past 15 games, the seventh-best mark in the NBA in that span.
