FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 4/14/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's 11-game main slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.
This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.
Teams are sorted by their implied total.
De'Aaron Fox ($9,600) - Fox was featured as a target in today's studs column, and for good reason. The over/under for the matchup between the Sacramento Kings and Washington Wizards currently sits at 238, which is a good five points higher than any other contest on tonight's slate. Additionally, as of writing, the two-point spread in this one is the tightest of the 11 games taking place tonight. This season, Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, per numberFire's DvP tool. Fox has exceeded 47 fantasy points in 15 of his last 23 games, including eight with 50-plus.
Malachi Flynn ($5,300) - Once again, we'll turn to Malachi Flynn for value in our lineups. The rookie dropped 38.5 FanDuel points last night, and tonight, the Toronto Raptors will be down Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Gary Trent Jr.. Embrace the chalk here -- don't overthink it.
Bradley Beal ($8,500) - Beal looks to be back to form after seeing 36.6 minutes of action and dropping 48.1 FanDuel points on the Utah Jazz on Monday. He gets a mouth-water draw tonight against a Kings team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, and that has surrendered the most real-life points, third-most assists, eighth-most steals, and third-most fantasy points to two-guards this season.
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,500) - I've already outlined how juicy of a matchup we have tonight between the Kings and Wizards, and Haliburton could be a beneficiary. Buddy Hield missed Monday night's game and is questionable to suit up tonight, and his absence would even further increase the rookie's appeal. Over their last 30 games, no team in the Association has been more generous to shooting guards than the Wizards, per FantasyPros. Haliburton is our model's top-projected value at the position.
Jimmy Butler ($9,300) - Butler's not my favorite high-salaried target tonight, but if you do want to pay up at small forward, there is merit in rostering him. He has garnered at least 43.7 FanDuel points in six of his last eight games, including performances of 47.3, 49.9, and 52.2 in three of his last six. On top of that, the Denver Nuggets have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards in 2020-21.
Caleb Martin ($3,500) - Martin exploded for 38.5 fantasy points in 35.1 minutes of action against the Los Angeles Lakers last night, and despite Terry Rozier's probable return, he's still well worth considering at the minimum salary. The Charlotte Hornets will still be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, and PJ Washington for tonight's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, so Caleb shouldn't have any trouble getting a healthy chunk of minutes. Over their last 15 games, the Cavs have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards.
Christian Wood ($7,500) - Of all the players on tonight's slate with a salary of $5,600 or higher, no one is projected to return better value than Wood, per numberFire's algorithm. In a much tougher matchup on Monday, Wood dropped 50.5 FanDuel points on a Phoenix Suns team that ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and sixth versus power forwards. Tonight, he'll be facing the Indiana Pacers, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards and eighth-most to opposing centers. As an added bonus, Indiana could very well be without the league's leading shot-blocker in Myles Turner.
Nicolas Claxton ($3,700) - For tonight's bout with the Philadelphia 76ers, the Brooklyn Nets will be without James Harden, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, and Tyler Johnson. Wowza. That leaves the door open for Claxton to see plenty of minutes, and he'd only need to produce 18.5 fantasy points to accrue our baseline value.
Joel Embiid ($10,100) - Embiid looks to be returning to the pre-injury form that had him as the MVP frontrunner. In his last two games, he has garnered 49.4 and 53.8 FanDuel points. If they're to win the game, the Sixers will need an explosive performance from Embiid against a Nets interior that ranks 25th versus centers this campaign. The 27-year-old is our model's second-highest projected scorer on the entire slate.
Moses Brown ($4,700) - There are a number of potentially fantastic value options at the five tonight, but few possess as much upside as Brown. Last night, against the Jazz of all teams, Brown dropped 37 fantasy points, making it seven times in his last 13 games that he'd surpassed 30. Tonight, he'll face a Golden State Warriors frontcourt that's allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to centers in their last 30 games.