NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 4/16/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
UTAHIND234.5-10.0122.25122.32111.711
NOWSH240.0-2.0121.0116.78114.623
WSHNO240.02.0119.0105.024118.628
PORSA232.5-2.5117.50119.66112.213
BKNCHA222.5-12.0117.25120.25112.516
DENHOU226.0-8.5117.25122.13115.225
SAPOR232.52.5115.0108.119121.429
MIAMIN220.0-7.0113.50105.025117.827
MEMCHI222.5-3.5113.0110.715113.619
INDUTAH234.510.0112.25111.213104.44
PHILAC220.5-3.0111.75110.516110.410
DETOKC217.0-3.0110.0105.223114.522
CHIMEM222.53.5109.50109.517109.09
LACPHI220.53.0108.75123.81102.12
HOUDEN226.08.5108.7599.627113.217
DALNY211.5-5.5108.50115.111104.23
TORORL215.0-2.0108.50111.114114.724
OKCDET217.03.0107.096.330113.318
ORLTOR215.02.0106.5098.328112.315
MINMIA220.07.0106.50101.326107.96
CHABKN222.512.0105.25108.918115.526
NYDAL211.55.5103.0105.622112.214

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
WSH NO 104.3 1 98.8 16 101.6 111.8 113.5
NO WSH 98.8 16 104.3 1 101.6 115.7 117.5
CHA BKN 98.8 17 102.3 4 100.5 112.2 112.8
BKN CHA 102.3 4 98.8 17 100.5 116.4 117.0
CHI MEM 99.7 13 100.3 11 100.0 109.3 109.3
MEM CHI 100.3 11 99.7 13 100.0 112.1 112.2
IND UTAH 100.4 10 99.2 15 99.8 107.8 107.6
UTAH IND 99.2 15 100.4 10 99.8 117.0 116.7
MIA MIN 96.5 28 102.8 2 99.7 111.4 111.0
MIN MIA 102.8 2 96.5 28 99.7 104.6 104.3
DET OKC 97.5 26 101.6 6 99.6 109.8 109.4
OKC DET 101.6 6 97.5 26 99.6 104.8 104.3
LAC PHI 97.8 24 101.2 9 99.5 112.9 112.4
PHI LAC 101.2 9 97.8 24 99.5 110.4 109.9
ORL TOR 98.6 18 99.9 12 99.2 105.3 104.5
TOR ORL 99.9 12 98.6 18 99.2 112.9 112.0
DEN HOU 96.2 29 101.3 7 98.8 118.7 117.2
HOU DEN 101.3 7 96.2 29 98.8 106.4 105.1
POR SA 97.7 25 99.4 14 98.6 115.9 114.2
SA POR 99.4 14 97.7 25 98.6 114.8 113.1
DAL NY 97.9 21 95.3 30 96.6 109.7 106.0
NY DAL 95.3 30 97.9 21 96.6 108.9 105.2

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
BKN CHA 0.98 (21) 0.87 (18) 0.91 (28) 1.02 (29) 1.08 (10)
CHA BKN 0.92 (4) 0.87 (13) 0.83 (9) 0.98 (22) 1.20 (25)
CHI MEM 0.96 (12) 0.88 (21) 0.89 (22) 0.91 (8) 1.19 (24)
DAL NY 0.92 (5) 0.83 (3) 0.82 (7) 0.86 (2) 1.14 (20)
DEN HOU 1.02 (26) 0.94 (28) 0.89 (23) 0.95 (16) 1.20 (27)
DET OKC 0.99 (22) 0.89 (24) 0.95 (30) 1.01 (28) 1.16 (22)
HOU DEN 0.90 (2) 0.84 (6) 0.93 (29) 0.95 (17) 0.93 (1)
IND UTAH 0.94 (8) 0.78 (2) 0.84 (11) 0.89 (4) 1.10 (13)
LAC PHI 0.96 (11) 0.87 (17) 0.82 (5) 0.89 (5) 0.96 (2)
MEM CHI 0.96 (15) 0.87 (14) 0.83 (8) 0.94 (14) 1.24 (30)
MIA MIN 1.05 (29) 0.9 (25) 0.90 (27) 0.99 (23) 1.23 (29)
MIN MIA 0.91 (3) 0.86 (11) 0.85 (12) 0.92 (9) 1.05 (6)
NO WSH 1.05 (30) 0.91 (26) 0.88 (20) 0.95 (15) 1.21 (28)
NY DAL 0.93 (7) 0.84 (4) 0.83 (10) 0.92 (10) 1.10 (14)
OKC DET 0.96 (13) 0.88 (20) 0.79 (2) 1.05 (30) 1.12 (15)
ORL TOR 0.96 (10) 0.89 (22) 0.85 (13) 1.00 (25) 1.12 (16)
PHI LAC 0.96 (14) 0.87 (16) 0.76 (1) 0.86 (1) 1.02 (3)
POR SA 1.02 (25) 0.85 (8) 0.88 (19) 0.93 (11) 1.13 (18)
SA POR 1.00 (24) 0.94 (29) 0.81 (4) 0.96 (20) 1.06 (7)
TOR ORL 1.03 (27) 0.95 (30) 0.90 (26) 0.98 (21) 1.03 (4)
UTAH IND 0.97 (16) 0.86 (12) 0.87 (16) 1.00 (26) 1.17 (23)
WSH NO 1.03 (28) 0.89 (23) 0.89 (24) 0.93 (12) 1.09 (11)