3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
C.J. McCollum Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-102)
In three games this season in which C.J. McCollum has played and Damian Lillard has not -- which is the situation tonight -- McCollum has gone a total of 6 for 25 from three. Obviously, the 24% shooting clip leaves a lot to be desired, but we know McCollum is a good three-point shooter. What we can focus on is the 25 attempts, which is the kind of volume that can help him hit four-plus triples today against the Los Angeles Clippers.
McCollum is averaging 3.8 made threes per game for the season, including 4.0 per night at home. He's 9 for 15 from deep in two games versus the Clippers this season. This matchup has a solid 224.0-point implied total, and the spread is 7.0 points, so there isn't too much blowout risk.
We project McCollum to nail 4.4 three-pointers against LA, so getting him at a line of 3.5 with a -102 price is pretty nice.
Lonzo Ball Under 4.5 Rebounds (-118)
Lonzo Ball has snagged five-plus boards just twice in his last seven games and only three times in his past 12. For the season, he is averaging 4.2 rebounds. So his matchup must be a good one for his rebounding outlook -- right?
Not so.
Ball is up against a Brooklyn Nets team that gives up only 11.1 rebounds per night to opposing backcourts, the fewest in the league.
This game has a 233.0-point total and should have a plenty of possessions, but our projections side with the under here. We forecast Ball to pull down 3.8 boards.
Buddy Hield Under 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+106)
The Minnesota Timberwolves aren't good at many things, but something their defense has done well this season is limit three-point tries. Minnesota allows just a 36.5% three-point attempt rate, which is tied for the sixth-lowest mark in the NBA.
Buddy Hield makes his living beyond the arc, and he's been living well of late. Prior to an 0-for-4 night from deep in his last game, Hield had made at least four triples in six straight outings, shooting 42.6% from three in that span, which is better than his season-long percentage of 38.2%. He's not going to stay that hot, and with Hield facing a Minnesota team that does a good job limiting threes, the under on his made threes prop is appealing.
We actually project Hield for 3.6 made threes, but with the over priced at -136 and the under at +106, give me the under.
