FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 4/28/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Russell Westbrook ($11,100) - Point guard is deep, which could leave Westbrook overlooked as the only option with a salary above $8,200. Westbrook faces the Los Angeles Lakers, who are just 20th in adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to opposing point guards, so we should like his chances to produce. We are projecting him for 54.0 FanDuel points, one of just two marks over 40.0 at the position. At a certain point, we can't make up the points at the position if Westbrook cashes in tonight, so I like the opportunity cost angle here.
Darius Garland ($7,700) - Garland isn't as big a name as some others at point guard but has had a consistent floor, stemming from a lot of shot attempts. He's averaging 17.5 field goal attempts and 39.3 FanDuel points per game over his past 11. Adjusting for the Cleveland Cavaliers' injuries (Collin Sexton and Taurean Prince) and departures (Andre Drummond and JaVale McGee) without completely depleting all sample size, Garland has a team-high 28.3% usage rate among players with more than 10 minutes in that split. He also averages 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in that context, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,300) - Clarkson gets an opportunity boost when Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are off the floor (both are out). His usage rate climbs 1.5 percentage points to a team-high 30.7%, and he averages 1.03 FanDuel points per minute. When Conley and Mitchell missed a game on April 17th against the Lakers, Clarkson played a team-high 46.1 minutes (it went to overtime). Additionally, Clarkson's matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a positive one: they're 27th against opposing shooting guards.
Devonte' Graham ($5,700) - Graham popped off last night with a line of 25 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1 steal -- 36.6 FanDuel points. That's a strong return on his $5,700 salary. Graham gets the Boston Celtics, against whom he had a 24-point, 2-rebound, 9-assist line on Sunday in 31.7 minutes. numberFire projects him for another strong outing, totaling 29.1 FanDuel points over 32.4 minutes.
Jaylen Brown ($8,100) - The Celtics could get Jayson Tatum back, but Kemba Walker remains out. Without Walker, Brown leads the Celtics in usage rate (32.1%) and manages 1.24 FanDuel points per minute, via RotoGrinders. That'll work. Brown netted 65.7 FanDuel points last night against the Oklahoma City Thunder over 38.1 minutes. The Charlotte Hornets are just 28th against opposing small forwards. There's a ton to like about Brown for a second night in a row.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200) and Joe Ingles ($6,100) - Bogdanovic and Ingles each cleared 39.0 minutes (in an overtime game) last week when both Mitchell and Conley were out. They are each projected for at least 31.8 minutes (31.8 for Ingles and 34.4 for Bogdanovic). Without Mitchel and Conley on the floor, Bogdanovic carries marks of 0.84 FanDuel points per minute and a 26.6% usage rate. For Ingles, those are 1.01 and 21.2%, respectively. The Kings rank just 21st against opposing small forwards.
Zion Williamson ($9,400) - The top of the power forward position isn't rating out particularly well, but among the top, Zion stands out the most against the Denver Nuggets. Denver ranks 19th against opposing power forwards, not a reason to knock Williamson at all. The over/under is 228.5, and in 28 games with an over/under of that high or greater, he has put up 50.0 FanDuel points in 7 of them and a FanDuel-point-per-minute rate of 1.00 or better in 24 of them.
Kevin Love ($5,600) and Dean Wade ($3,500) - Love and Wade draw a top-10 power forward matchup against the Orlando Magic, who are 22nd against the position. Love, against bottom-10 power forward defenses, averages 1.04 FanDuel points, and Wade is at 0.87. Tonight, numberFire projects Love for 29.3 FanDuel points over 28.6 minutes and Wade for 20.8 FanDuel points over 30.1 minutes. That puts each at a value rating (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) of at least 5.24. Wade is the third-best value of the night (5.94).
Rudy Gobert ($7,900) - Center is really top-heavy, so we'll need to hit it right. Gobert seems like a really high-floor option in this spot -- at a reasonable salary. Gobert averages 1.36 FanDuel points per minute on a 21.4% usage rate when Mitchell and Conley are off the floor. Gobert is a top-five value on the night across all positions, as our algorithm projects him for 45.0 FanDuel points (5.69 points per $1,000). The Kings are 21st against opposing centers.