3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/28/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Dennis Schroder Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)

The Los Angeles Lakers and Dennis Schroder face the Washington Wizards tonight in Washington, and the Wiz are up to eighth in defensive rating over the past 15 games.

They also are stingy on the perimeter, allowing just 36.8% of opposing field goals to come from behind the three-point arc. The NBA average is 39.3%. This should allow us to anticipate a reduced three-point rate for Schroder.

Schroder averages just 0.10 three-point attempts per minute, which is up to 0.13 over the past 15 games. He's a 34.4% three-point shooter on the season.

First, for fun, we'll give him the elevated rate of 0.13 over the past three games, and then adjust it for the matchup.

At his projected minutes rate (34.7), he should take 4.2 threes and make 1.5.

At his full-season rate of 0.10 three-point attempts per minute, he's at 1.1 three-point makes given the context.

At plus-money, we should lean on the under.

Jakob Poeltl Over 7.5 Rebounds (-114)

Jakob Poeltl is projected for 8.4 rebounds tonight, according to our algorithm, which should get us on the over for this prop against the Miami Heat.

Miami ranks 27th in rebounding rate over the past 15 games, gathering just 47.4% of the available rebounds in that span.

Poeltl averages 0.30 rebounds per minute this season and is projected for 31.2 minutes. That'd get him to 9.4 boards. Whew.

His rebounding rate goes up to 0.32 per minute against teams in the bottom 10 in rebounding rate, which seems like a small shift, but over 31.2 minutes, that'd get Poeltl to 10.0 boards.

Chris Paul Under 16.5 Points (-116)

Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns are hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be without Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful.

That seems like we should like the over as a result, but hold on just a sec.

Without them on the floor, the Clippers' defensive rating climbs from 105.9 to 109.1, which would still rank them fifth on the full season.

Paul, against top-six defenses, averages 0.47 points per minute. He's projected for 31.6 minutes, which would get him to 14.9 points if his rate stays the same.

Paul is on a scoring surge with an average of 21.2 points per game over his past five but is shooting 53.9% from the field and 51.9% from three in that span. His full-season rates are 48.9% and 38.1%, respectively. We should expect him to cool off eventually, and we should take advantage of the under while we can.