NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Thursday 4/29/21

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Kevin Durant, SF, Brooklyn Nets

FanDuel Salary: $9,300

While Kevin Durant has a little risk here because he is he's returning slowly from a thigh injury, he has played 28.2 and 32.6 minutes in two games since returning. In those games, he has put up 54.2 and 44.0 FanDuel points, which are strong numbers in a limited role (28.2 and 32.6 minutes, respectively).

Durant's matchup with the Indiana Pacers is a neutral one: the Pacers rank 16th in the NBA this season in player-adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed to opposing small forwards.

Yes, Durant's minutes should be kept in check (especially with a back-to-back tomorrow, though he may not play in it), but our model anticipates 32.7 minutes for him. That should be enough to pay off his salary. He's projected for 46.5 FanDuel points, exactly 5.00 per $1,000 in salary (or a value rating of 5.00).

Durant, against defenses outside the top-10 against small forwards (a 17-game sample), has averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute, leading to an average outing of 48.4 FanDuel points in 34.4 minutes.

In games without James Harden (who is out) but with Kyrie Irving, Durant has a team-high 30.3% usage rate and averages 1.37 FanDuel points per minute.

Given everything, we should expect Durant for 1.40 FanDuel points per minute on the lower end, which would get him to 42.0 FanDuel points even at just 30.0 minutes. A little more of each, and we're looking at 50.0 or more FanDuel points at $9,300.

Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors

FanDuel Salary: $9,600

With Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic ($11,000; questionable), Kyrie Irving ($10,000), and Malcolm Brogdon ($8,500), we have good options at point guard at the high end, but for me, Curry is the best play at the position -- and possibly the best overall play of the night.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the absolute worst point guard defense in the NBA when adjusted for opponent faced, and positive matchups have led to big outings for Curry this year. He has 11 games against bottom-six point guard opponents, and in them, he has put up 1.41 FanDuel points per minute for an average of 49.3 FanDuel points over 34.9 minutes per game.

Curry has played Minnesota twice this season already. The first game, on January 25th, led to 51.3 FanDuel points on 11-of-21 shooting, and two days later, he was only 6-for-17 for 33.2 FanDuel points in total. The shots should be there, though, and that's the real key.

Curry has averaged 49.2 FanDuel points in 16 games this month, just twice falling shy of 40.0 FanDuel points. One of those came in his most recent game, when he failed to crack 30 minutes two days ago in a blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks.

The floor should be locked in, and the ceiling is always big for Curry.

Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves

FanDuel Salary: $9,700

It's really hard not to love Nikola Jokic ($10,900) tonight, but he's on a back-to-back after a 64.4-FanDuel-point outburst last night.

There's also a $1,200 gap in salary between Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns, and numberFire projects a differential of only 4.5 FanDuel points between them (54.6 for Jokic and 50.1 for Towns).

Towns' matchup is a very positive one. The Golden State Warriors rank 23rd against opposing centers and 28th in rebounding rate. Against teams in the bottom 10 in rebounding rate when Towns played at least 30 minutes (12 games), Towns is averaging 12.0 rebounds.

In 15 games against bottom-10 center defenses, Towns is averaging a line of 27.8 points, 11.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 2.2 combined steals and blocks for a total of 53.0 FanDuel points.

He can probably match what Jokic gives us on a back-to-back while allowing us to save salary.