3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/29/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kevin Durant Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)
It's a little scary to target an over on a player when his minutes could be held in check, but Kevin Durant's time on the court should be jam-packed with action in a game with a 243.5-point over/under.
The superstar forward has had 6 and 10 rebounds in 28 and 32 minutes in two games since returning from his injury, and the data suggests he he can get to 8 rebounds against the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana, without Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, have a rebounding rate of just 47.9%, which would rank 28th on the full season. They're already allowing a top-10 rate of rebounds per game to power forwards even with Turner and Sabonis.
Adjusting Durant's usual rebounding rate for the matchup and prorating it over his 32.8 projected minutes, we should like the over here.
Brook Lopez Over 4.5 Rebounds (-108)
They are also bottom-five in rebounds per game allowed to opposing centers.
That's obviously a good sign for Brook Lopez.
Against bottom-half rebounding teams by rebounding rate, Lopez averages 0.19 rebounds per minute and 5.0 per game. In such games when a double-digit favorite, he averages 5.5 boards per game over a 12-game sample.
numberFire projects Lopez for 5.4 rebounds in 27.1 minutes (0.20 per minute) in this contest, making the over a pretty sensible back at -108.
Eric Bledsoe Over 1.5 Made Threes (+106)
Eric Bledsoe and the New Orleans Pelicans get the Oklahoma City Thunder, and this game should feature plenty of three-point attempts because both sides are top-five in three-point attempts allowed per game.
If we make adjustments to Bledsoe's three-point attempt rate (0.17 per minute) for the positive matchup against the Thunder and prorate it out over his 26.0 projected minutes, he should get around 4.8 attempts tonight.
At his 35.0% season clip, he should make 1.7 of them, a welcomed sight at plus-money odds.
Bledsoe went 2 for 4 from deep against the Thunder over 25.0 minutes back in January and 2 for 5 against them on New Year's eve over 25.2 minutes. That's basically what the data says he can do again.