FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 4/30/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Damian Lillard ($8,000) - Dame's ceiling has been capped lately during a bit of a shooting slump. In five games since a three-game absence, he is shooting 44.1% in terms of effective field goal percentage, down substantially from his full-season rate of 53.2%. He's averaging 20.1 field goal attempts per game this season and 20.2 over the past five, so it really is a shooting issue. Lillard's in a game with a 440.5-point over/under against the Brooklyn Nets, and in four games with total of at least 240 this year, Lillard has averaged 49.2 FanDuel points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute.
Jrue Holiday ($7,300) - Giannis Antetokounmpo's rolled ankle that forced him from last night's game could leave him out of this one, and that's good news for Holiday. In seven games with both he and Khris Middleton but without Antetokounmpo, Holiday has a 24.2% usage rate and averages 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. That's a usage rate boost of 2.3 percentage points. Holiday is already projected for 35.6 FanDuel points before ruling out Giannis.
C.J. McCollum ($7,700) - McCollum is in that Nets/Blazers game with a 240.5-point total, which is a rare mark for him. He's played in just two games with a total that high. He's had at least 20 points in seven of his past eight games and has possessed a solid floor due to his scoring, and the rebounding and assists are strong, too (4.9 and 5.3, respectively, over the past eight games). numberFire is projecting McCollum for 36.9 FanDuel points, 4.79 per $1,000 in salary (or a value rating of 4.79).
Tyrese Haliburton ($6,900) - Haliburton has started to surge a bit and has 20, 16, and 14 field goal attempts in his past three games for FanDuel point totals of 41.6, 40.0, and 25.0. He also has 8, 10, and 8 assists and is top-20 in touches per game across the NBA in that three-game stretch. Over his projection of 36.1 minutes, he's anticipated to rack up 35.3 FanDuel points, 5.11 per $1,000.
Khris Middleton ($7,200) - Middleton, in seven games shared with Holiday and without Antetokounmpo, leads the Bucks in usage rate (29.5%) and posts 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. The Chicago Bulls rank 11th against opposing small forwards when adjusting for opponents faced, and against middle-third defenses, Middleton averages 35.8 FanDuel points per game, which is good for close to a 5.00 value rating. Throw in the usage rate boost (of 4.2 percentage points) without Giannis, and Middleton is an easy floor/ceiling play.
Rui Hachimura ($4,100) - Rui's getting an elite value projection tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers: 5.73. That stems from a projected line of 13.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.9 combined steals and blocks over 31.5 minutes. Hachimura's matchup with the Cavaliers is a neutral one: they're 17th against opposing small forwards this season once adjusting for opponents. He averages 24.2 FanDuel points per game in 13 contests against middle-third defenses.
Tobias Harris ($6,900) - The model loves Harris against the Atlanta Hawks and projects him for 37.5 FanDuel points (and a 5.44 value rating, a top-five rate at the position). Harris always brings with him a high floor due to the double-digit shot attempt consistency and contributions across the peripheral stats. Atlanta is just 17th against power forwards, and that makes for a promising opportunity here in a game with a 222.0-point total and a 9.5-point spread that favors the Philadelphia 76ers. He's averaged 38.2 FanDuel points across 12 games as a 8.0-point-or-larger favorite.
Thaddeus Young ($5,300) - Gone are the days where Young will pop off for a monstrous stat line, but he has had a value rating of at least 5.00 in 32 of 58 games this season (55.2%) and at least 4.50 in 41 of 58 games (70.7%). That's welcomed at a $5,300 salary. The Bucks' rebounding rate ticks down without Antetokounmpo closer to the NBA average and would rank 10th on the full season as opposed to 2nd. numberFire is projecting Young for the second-best value rating (5.72) among all power forwards.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,000) - Center is pretty loaded and balanced, so we'll need to make sure we hit things right. I just highlighted the rebounding rate differential for Milwaukee without Antetokounmpo, and that should help Vucevic take advantage tonight. He has notched at least 39.2 FanDuel points in four straight games and has averaged 44.1 as a Bull, based on a line of 22.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 combined steals and blocks. Only once has he fallen shy of 34.6 FanDuel points as a member of Chicago across 19 games.