3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/3/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Robert Covington Under 8.5 Points (-112)

Robert Covington is projected for just 7.6 points tonight, according to our algorithm, and that's actually a full point above his past-10 rate (6.6 points per game).

His effective field goal percentage in that split is 47.5%, down from 53.8% on the full season. I don't like to bet on shooting slumps to continue forever, but we're also dealing with someone who is averaging just 6.0 field goal attempts over the past 10 games (and 1.0 free throw attempt). Of the 6.0 attempts, 3.5 are threes, so he's a highly-volatile option.

The Atlanta Hawks are better than league average at allowing three-point attempts, so combining that with the cold shooting and the projection, and we can probably bank on Covington to fall shy of 9 points for the 8th time in 10 games.

Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-110)

Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are up against the Chicago Bulls, who are league-average in points per game allowed to centers over the past 10.

They also rank top-10 in field goal attempt rate allowed from within three feet, and Embiid is shooting 73.4% at the rim.

Over the past 15 games, the Bulls rank 19th in defensive rating. Against middle-tier defenses, Embiid has averaged 30.0 points over 17 contests and got to 26 points in 11 of them (64.7%).

Our projections anticipate 26.0 points for him, a number he has reached in 26 of 45 games (57.8%).

Keldon Johnson Over 12.5 Points (+100)

Keldon Johnson's rebounding prop (over 5.5 [-130]) also looks like a good value. Our model projects him for 6.7 boards, but at -130 odds, I figure why not detail something at plus money?

Our model pegs him for 12.9 points tonight against the Utah Jazz, who allow 114.6 points per 100 possessions in four games without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, both of whom are listed as out. That would rank them 28th on the full season.

Johnson, against bottom-10 defenses, has averaged 0.42 points per minute in 20 contests. We're projecting him for 31.3 minutes, and he'd get to 13.1 points at that rate.

It's a little tight, yet it's plus-money odds. And if you'd rather, take the safer play on the over with his rebounds.