3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/4/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Assists (+104)
Our model is projecting Donte DiVincenzo for 3.1 assists over 27.1 minutes tonight, which makes his over prop at plus money pretty interesting.
In 14 games with a total of at least 235.0, DiVincenzo has averaged 0.14 assists per minute, up from 0.11 on the full season. At his projected minutes rate, that would get him to 3.8 assists, and even at the 0.11-assist-per-minute rate, he'd get to 3.0.
Going back to that 14-game sample in games with high totals, he recorded 3 assists in 10 of the 14 games (71.4%).
Josh Richardson Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-113)
We should, then, expect Richardson to get an uptick in three-point attempt rate.
On the season, he is averaging 0.15 three-point attempts per minute and is making just 31.7%. Across 31.5 projected minutes at an elevated three-point attempt rate, he should go 1.7 for 5.4 from deep.
Richardson, though, is a 35.6% career three-point shooter, and if we give him that rate, we're looking at 1.9 makes. Simply put: the elevated attempts and the revenge angle should lead to two splashes from Richardson.
Darius Bazley Under 17.5 Points (-118)
Our model is anticipating Darius Bazley to score just 15.9 points tonight, making the under a pretty easy play.
Using that 15.9-point mark as the baseline projection and his seasonal deviations, he should be around 41.3% likely to surpass his total, even if we look at his role since returning in April.
Sure, the Sacramento Kings do rank last in defensive rating (118.6) over the past 15 games. Against bottom-five opponents, Bazley averages 0.47 points per minute. He's projected for 33.4 minutes, which would get him to 15.7 points even at the heightened rate.