NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/19/21: Are the Lakers a Lock to Advance?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
San Antonio Spurs (+144) at Memphis Grizzlies (-174)
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -4.0
Total: 223.0
Everything -- the bookmakers, the betting public, our algorithm, and the data overall -- favor the Grizzlies in this game.
Memphis is receiving 74% of the betting tickets and 84% of the money to win outright, and numberFire's model rates their moneyline (-174) as a three-star recommendation out of five. Our model gives Memphis a 74.4% chance to beat the San Antonio Spurs, which is a 10.9-percentage-point gap over the moneyline implications of 63.5%.
Our model also sees the average margin of victory to be a full 7.0 points with an average score of 118.0 to 111.0. That makes Memphis -4.0 a one-star recommendation and 56.7% likely, per our algorithm.
The public betting trends are also on Memphis to cover: 68% of the money and tickets are on Memphis -4.0.
And there's also agreement on the over at 223.0. Our model sees a median point total of 229.0, giving us some breathing room on that number, and the over is getting more than 70% of the bets and money, as well.
Golden State Warriors (+180) at Los Angeles Lakers (-215)
Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
Total: 219.0
The Lakers enter this game with just four shared games with LeBron James (probable), Anthony Davis (questionable), and Andre Drummond.
They have a 2-2 record in that sample with a net rating of 2.3, via PBPStats. But over the weekend, they played two of those games, winning both with a net rating of 9.6.
The Golden State Warriors are entering with a 6-game win streak and an 11-4 record over their final 15 games, which is tied to a net rating of 7.1, the fourth-best mark in that 15-game sample.
Our algorithm is viewing some value on this game, primarily with the Lakers' moneyline (-215), rating it as a two-star recommendation. That moneyline suggests a 68.3% chance to win, but our model has the Lakers advancing 74.6% of the time.
We're seeing a big majority of tickets (73%) and an even bigger majority of money (86%) on the Lakers to get past the Warriors.
There's also harmony between our model's over/under pick (over 219.0 is a two-star recommendation), and the betting public has placed 88% of the money on the over thus far.
