3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Justin Holiday Under 11.5 Points (-122)
We've got just one NBA game on the docket for tonight, and as you'd expect, lines are pretty dang tight over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model sees a little value on the under on Justin Holiday's points prop.
Holiday makes his living beyond the arc. For the season, he averaged 8.7 shots per night, 6.3 of which were three-pointers. The Washington Wizards aren't a good matchup for him as they did a good job limiting three-point tries, holding opponents to a 36.8% three-point attempt rate, the sixth-lowest mark.
Holiday averaged exactly 10.0 points per game in three regular-season meetings with Washington, going for 12-plus points only one time. Over their final seven games of the regular season, the Wiz surrendered only 13.8 points per game to small forwards, the fewest in the NBA.
While Holiday should get good minutes in what's likely to be a fast-paced affair, our algorithm projects him for just 10.8 points.
Raul Neto Over 2.5 Rebounds (-106)
We're digging deep. FanDuel Sportsbook has more player props available than usual for this game, and Raul Neto's rebounding prop is at a low 2.5 boards.
Neto was questionable coming into the first play-in game on Tuesday versus the Boston Celtics, but he started and played 17 minutes. While Neto didn't do much of anything (no points and one rebound), the outing may have helped him get back up to speed after six days off, and his matchup tonight with the Indiana Pacers is a softer spot.
These two teams both rank in the top five in pace, and Indiana is fourth-worst in rebound rate.
For the year, Neto averaged 2.4 rebounds and 21.9 minutes per game. Entering the play-in games, Net had snagged three rebounds in two of his last three games.
We project him for 3.6 rebounds in this one.
Domantas Sabonis Over 14.5 Rebounds (-114)
You can find this bet in Domantas Sabonis' alternate rebounds section.
The Wizards have been brutal against power forwards all year, especially of late. Over their last seven games, Washington is giving up 28.4 points and 12.2 rebounds per game to the position, with the boards being the third-most.
Sans Myles Turner, Sabonis has had to step up on the glass, and he's done just that. He averaged 14.1 boards per night in nine May games, and he's gone for 21 and 16 in his last two, with the 21-board effort coming in a play-in game versus Charlotte Hornets. Sabonis still got 32 minutes in that one despite the Pacers running out to a big lead and winning by 27, so we could see him push for 40 minutes in what should be a close game (3.5-point spread).
The tight spread and 237.0-point total make this a dream environment for counting stats, and we forecast Sabonis to pull down 14.8 rebounds.