3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/21/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Assists (-108)
Stephen Curry has played the Memphis Grizzlies just once this season, and that came this past weekend on the final day of the regular season. In that game, he put up a line of 46 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, and 7 turnovers.
Obviously, the number we're looking at there is the assist total. We can't just apply that to this game and say he'll match the line (he won't), but the 5.5 mark is too low.
Curry is projected for 6.6 assists, per our algorithm, and that makes his over look really appealing.
In fact, if we use that 6.6 mark as his baseline projection and consider his game-by-game variance in the assist column, Curry should be 67.1% likely to hit the over here, meaning the line should be -204.
There's clear value on him to get to six helpers.
Ja Morant Under 8.5 Assists (-120)
Let's stick with the assist props, change sides, and go with the under instead. That's where the data is pointing on Ja Morant's number.
Morant, in three games against the Golden State Warriors this season, has put up 2, 8, and 9 assists -- so just once hitting the over on this current line.
Golden State has allowed the third-fewest assists per game over the past 15 games (23.0), which speaks to their pace and defensive tendencies. That mark is around 90.6% of the NBA average. We should expect Morant's per-minute assist rate to drop as a result.
Our model at numberFire is projecting Morant for 7.8 assists, a full 1.2 shy of the 9.0 he needs to get to in order to cash the over.
Using that same process we did with Curry with the game-by-game variance and his projection, Morant is rating out as 60.8% likely to stay under 8.5 assists, implying the under odds should be -155.
Draymond Green Under 9.5 Points (-112)
It's kind of wild to expect a starter projected for the most minutes of the night (37.7) to fail to hit double-digit points, but that's what the numbers are suggesting here, much like we've seen from him all season.
He's gotten to 10 points in 19 of 63 games (30.2%), so...yeah.
Green is projected for 8.9 points, according to our algorithm, over that 37.7-minute workload, which works out to 0.24 points per minute. His full-season rate is actually only 0.22.
Based on Green's baseline point projection and his seasonal scoring deviation, he's actually rating out 59.1% likely to stay under his point total, which means the under should be -144.
