NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 5/21/21: Will the Warriors Get Through the Grizzlies?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Memphis Grizzlies (+184) at Golden State Warriors (-210)

Spread: Golden State Warriors -4.5
Total: 221.5

The Warriors will need to bounce back from LeBron James' dagger three against them in the 7-versus-8 seed matchup from Wednesday, and the Memphis Grizzlies will need to keep up their solid play (9-6 over their past 15 games -- despite a -0.3 net rating) to clinch the 8 seed and reach the playoffs.

The Warriors were 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the regular season with a point differential of 5.7 per game across them, despite playing two of them without Stephen Curry. Of note, the third game came on the closing day of the NBA's regular season, a game which the Warriors won 113-101. Curry played in that game.

Also of note, all three games hit the under (by 2, 6.5, and 14.5 points, an average of 7.7 points below the posted total).

Despite that under trend within the matchups, our model loves the over (221.5) here, rating it as a four-star recommendation out of five and as 68.9% likely to occur. That leads to an expected return of 31.5%. My personal model, based in opponent-adjusted data, sees this game as 62.6% likely to go over, despite the team's recent under trends.

The public is also backing the over with 72% of the tickets and 70% of the money trending on the over, so there's agreement between the two there.

However, there is disharmony between the spread and moneyline recommendations. oddsFire is showing at least 84% of the money on Golden State to cover and to win outright, but our model is rating Memphis +4.5 and Memphis' moneyline of +184 to be two-star recommendations out of five.

My model is seeing this game quite close, nearly a pick 'em. That does indicate some potential value on the Grizzlies' moneyline, but I'd rather take the points and not expect the hot Warriors (7.1 net rating over their final 15 games) to drop both games in the play-in.

The over is making the most sense, but Memphis +4.5 and the Warriors' moneyline are also in play.