3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/8/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Seth Curry Over 2.5 Three-Point Makes (-104)
The data points to at least three three-point makes for Seth Curry in Game 2.
Curry, this season, has averaged 0.18 three-point attempts per minute and is projected for 34.1 minutes tonight, meaning he should get up roughly 6.0 three-point attempts in Game 2. Curry has converted at a 44.3% clip on the season from deep, and that all combines for 2.7 makes as a baseline.
numberFire projects him for 2.6 makes, so I'll just split the difference here and go with 2.65 as his baseline.
If we use Curry's seasonal variance in three-point makes, he should be around 54.6% to get to three makes, which is a good bet at these odds. With these props being pretty tight overall, that's one of the better spots of the night.
He went five for nine from three-point range in Game 1.
Ben Simmons Under 8.5 Assists (-114)
Ben Simmons has notched 15, 8, 9, 3, 11, and 10 assists in his past six games, so it's a little scary to go with the under here, but that's what the data is pointing to -- and it's important to keep in mind that we don't get swayed by small-sample upticks in statistical categories.
numberFire's algorithm projects Simmons for 7.9 assists over 37.0 minutes (0.21 per minute), in line with his full-season average of 0.22.
Given Simmons' game log and numberFire's projection, he's rating out as 60.1% likely to stay under 9 assists in this game, which means the under odds should actually be -151.
Reggie Jackson Over 2.5 Assists (-118)
Now, let's do an over assist prop, one that is much more attainable at 2.5 for Reggie Jackson. Jackson has been light in the assist column lately: 2, 4, 2, 3, 4, 1 in his past six, but that is three overs at this current number.
Jackson's baseline assist projection in numberFire's model is 3.9, so yeah, he's really blowing the prop out of the water right now. We're projecting him for north of 30 minutes, so that's another positive for such a low prop.
Using that 3.9 mark for Jackson's simulation here, he should be around 73.5% likely to go over his prop, which suggests odds of -277.