3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/9/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists (+138)
Aaron Gordon doled out just two assists in Game 1 of this series but had four each in two games prior and looks primed to get to three or more tonight.
In total, in his time with the Denver Nuggets this season, Gordon has averaged 0.08 assists per minute. He's projected for 30.5 minutes, which would get him to 2.4 assists at that rate. Outright, though, our model is loving the over and projects him for 3.4 assists in that span.
Gordon, if we use his assist variance as a Nugget and his 3.4-assist baseline, would be 74.9% likely to hit the over, meaning the over odds should be -298.
Even we scale it back to the 2.4-assist baseline, he's around 47.5% likely to go over -- still a value at +138 odds.
Austin Rivers Over 2.5 Rebounds (+104)
Likewise, numberFire's baseline projection for Austin Rivers (3.4) is well above the prop, and we're getting it a plus money.
Rivers gathered 3 rebounds in the opener in 31.2 minutes -- in his only meeting against the Phoenix Suns this season.
Rivers' rebounding rate (0.08 per minute with the Nuggets) at a projected workload of 34.4 minutes puts him in the 2.8 range, so once more, the flat projection from numberFire's model is higher than my per-minute calculation, but we're still in good shape.
Using the 3.4-rebound baseline, Rivers is rating out as 75.0% likely to go over here, and if we tick it back to that 2.8 number, he's at 58.5%, indicating -141 odds on the over.
Facundo Campazzo Under 9.5 Points (-126)
We've already got two plus-money props here, so I'm cool taking a -126 prop that is showing some solid value despite the odds.
Facundo Campazzo is projected for just 8.9 points tonight, per our algorithm, which, obviously, is shy of the 10 points he'd need to hit the over.
Campazzo did play more than 36 minutes in the opener, which is a crucial variable for this prop. Our model is projecting him for just 27.4 minutes and 0.32 points per minute, actually higher than his full-season rate of 0.29.
Let's say he gets to 36 minutes again. He'd need 0.28 points per minute to get to 10 points, a rate he's maintained in only 33 of 72 games (45.8%).
Using his seasonal variance in scoring in games with at least 25 minutes, he's rating out as 55.9% likely to stay under 10 points, pointing us to the under.