3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
John Collins Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
We're getting even money odds on John Collins' rebounding prop in this situation, which is encouraging.
numberFire projects Collins for 7.8 rebounds tonight over 35.4 minutes (0.22 boards per minute), which is good enough alone to give us some confidence in the over, given the odds assigned to it.
Collins has pulled in 4, 10, and 7 rebounds in the series thus far, meaning he twice fell under the posted prop. However, the baseline projection and odds make the over the right play.
Using Collins' typical variance in rebounding and numberFire's projection for him tonight, he should be 53.2% likely to get to 8 rebounds, suggesting the over odds should be -114, but we're getting them at +100.
Reggie Jackson Under 14.5 Points (-116)
Reggie Jackson's points projection is coming in at just 13.2, via numberFire's model, and that's well shy of the 15.0 he'd need to get to in order to hit the over on this prop.
That point projection comes from a minutes expectation of 28.1 after he has played 17.0, 36.1, and 29.0 minutes in the series against the Utah Jazz.
Jackson has scored 9, 29, and 17 points in those games but has shot a stellar 63.2% from three (12 of 19).
He has at least three three-point makes in nine straight games, which is a concern for those of us on the under, but he also has had 1, 11, and 2 two-point attempts in this series, respectively.
Simulating out Jackson's expected points in this game, he's 58.3% likely to hit the under. That gives us value, as the -114 odds suggest a 53.3% chance to go under.
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Assists (-122)
numberFire's algorithm is projecting Donovan Mitchell for 5.2 assists over 35.2 minutes (0.15 per minute), and this is a pretty heavy differential between the assist prop at FanDuel Sportsbook.
This regular season, Mitchell averaged 0.12 assists per minute while sharing the floor with Conley but 0.18 without him.
If we give him that 0.18 mark over the projected minutes, he'd accrue 6.3 assists tonight.
Even at the 5.2-assist baseline, Mitchell should be 63.9% likely to hit the over.