FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 6/14/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's two-game playoff slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.
Reggie Jackson ($5,500) - Neither of the high-salaried options at point guard are interesting tonight, so we can try to get away with passing on both of them. Jackson has seen 36.1 and 29.0 minutes of action in the last two games of the series against the Utah Jazz, and that's resulted in fantasy outputs of 34.6 and 25.7, respectively. We can't really ask for much more than that at his salary range.
Shake Milton ($3,900) - Danny Green getting injured early in the first quarter in Game 3 versus the Atlanta Hawks resulted in Milton seeing 6.8 more minutes than he'd seen in any game this postseason. It makes sense -- Milton has a 25.4% usage rate in a team-leading 1076 minutes with Green off the court this season, according to RotoGrinders. More minutes should equate to more fantasy points for the 24-year-old guard, and a chance to return excellent value in the process.
Donovan Mitchell ($9,700) - Mitchell is now averaging 50.1 FanDuel points over his last five games, and passing on him might not be the wisest play, especially if Mike Conley is still out. Since his minutes have returned to normal in the postseason, the All-Star has showcased an excellent combination of floor and ceiling, which is not something we can say for the other stud at the position, Paul George ($9,200). That said, our model does project PG13 to be both the highest scorer and top value at shooting guard, so one could hardly be faulted for choosing that route tonight.
Joe Ingles ($5,600) - This play is entirely dependent on whether or not Conley suits up tonight. In three games without the veteran floor general in the lineup, Ingles has dropped 21.1, 30.8, and 29.8 FanDuel points, and he had plenty of success with Conley out during the regular season as well. If Conley is active, Seth Curry ($5,500) and Kevin Huerter ($5,200) are both viable pivots.
Kawhi Leonard ($11,200) - Leonard seems to be at his best when his back is up against the wall, and that was once again the case in Game 3, as he racked up 62.9 FanDuel points in the Los Angeles Clippers' victory. Kawhi has now recorded at least 54.5 FanDuel points in 7 of his 10 postseason games, and that includes 58.7-plus in three of his last five. Look for another big outing from the Klaw as Los Angeles looks to avoid a 3-1 deficit. numberFire's algorithm projects Leonard to outscore the next closest small forward by 26.2 fantasy points.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400) - Prior to his 13.3-point dud in Game 3, Bogdanovic had eclipsed 23 FanDuel points in six of Utah's seven playoff games, including performances of 28.5, 35.6, and 37.0. The sharpshooter was ice cold, hitting just one of his five attempts from downtown, though he had nailed at least three treys in four straight outings entering that contest. Our algorithm has Bogdanovic getting back on track tonight, predicting him for 25.4 fantasy points in 35.1 minutes of action.
Royce O'Neale ($5,800) - Somehow, O'Neale looks like one of the safer options at a very thin power forward position on tonight's slate. The 28-year-old has surpassed 26 FanDuel points in five of his last seven games, including outputs of 30.3, 30.7, and 42.4 in three of his last five. With his minutes hovering above 35 on a nightly basis, O'Neale is a good bet to return solid value.
Marcus Morris ($5,100) - Morris has alternated good and bad fantasy outings over his last six games, producing 37.9, 12.1, 32.0, 19.1, 27.5, and 12.9 FanDuel points, in that order. If he follows that (very scientific) trend, he should be in for a good performance tonight. The veteran sat out the final 16 minutes of Saturday's blowout, and he should be a relatively safe option as long as tonight's bout isn't a blowout as well.
Joel Embiid ($11,200) - Embiid has been dominant in this series against Atlanta, and one way or another, I'm going to prioritize getting him into my lineups tonight. Through three games, the big man has garnered 60.8, 63.8, and 64.6 FanDuel points, and our algo has him finishing as the slate's top scorer tonight. If you can't get up to Embiid, Rudy Gobert ($8,700) might be the next-best option. The Stifle Tower has accrued 49 and 52 fantasy points in two of his last four games.