FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 6/16/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's two-game playoff slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.
Ben Simmons ($8,500) - This is a 'pick your poison' spot between Simmons and Trae Young ($10,400), but we'll lean toward the $1,900 savings we get with the Philadelphia 76ers point guard. In three of his last five games, Simmons has dropped 44.9, 46.8, and 52.5 FanDuel points, and he only needs 42.5 to accrue five-times values tonight (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). It's worth noting that The Australian only totaled 25.1 and 33.3 fantasy points in the other two outings, so he's far from a sure thing.
Reggie Jackson ($4,800) - Jackson is our algorithm's top-projected point-per-dollar play on the entire slate, and with Kawhi Leonard (ACL) out for an indefinite period, it's easy to understand why. Jackson is bound to be relied upon for more scoring for the Los Angeles Clippers, and he has already had three games with at least 20 real-life points in LA's last seven playoff games. Jackson has garnered 23.6-plus FanDuel points in 7 of his last 10 efforts.
Paul George ($9,200) - PG13 might very well be the highest-rostered player on tonight's two-gamer, and deservedly so. George has racked up 44 or more fantasy points in 7 of his last 10 games, and he should see insane volume with Kawhi inactive. In fact, with Leonard off the court this season, George saw his usage rate rise by 6.8 percentage points while averaging an additional 0.15 FanDuel points per minute, per RotoGrinders.
Luke Kennard ($3,600) - Without Leonard on the court this season, Kennard was another player who saw a sizable bump in volume. The 24-year-old's usage rate jumped by 2.8 percentage points and he averaged an additional 0.09 FanDuel points per minute in that split. Kennard is a solid source of fantasy relief tonight.
Nicolas Batum ($6,200) - Somehow, Batum is now our algo's top-projected scorer at small forward. If that doesn't tell you all you need to know about the position, nothing will. The veteran has put up more than 30 fantasy points in three of his last five games, and like all of the other Clippers' players, he should get a bump from Kawhi's absence.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700) - numberFire's models project Bogdanovic to be the top value play on what is likely the thinnest position on the slate. The sharpshooter has amassed 23.3, 28.5, 34.1, and 35.6 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, and he should have a solid floor tonight, especially since Mike Conley won't suit up.
John Collins ($6,600) - Collins hasn't showcased much upside in the postseason for the Atlanta Hawks, but we can't exactly afford to be picky on a two-game slate. The 23-year-old has managed 31.8 or more FanDuel points in three of his last six outings, and he hasn't fallen below 24.4 in any of those contests. That's about as good as it's going to get at power forward tonight.
Marcus Morris ($5,600) - What's this, another player from the Clippers? Yep. Consider for a moment that Leonard's usage rates in the last two games were 31.5% and 32.3%m respectively. That's a lot of volume up for grabs. Morris should be able to take advantage. In four of his last seven games, the 31-year-old has accumulated fantasy outputs of 27.5, 32.0, 35.7, and 37.9 points -- that'll play, especially at a $5,600 salary. Morris is numberFire's top-predicted value at power forward tonight.
Joel Embiid ($10,800) - Embiid clearly tired out in the second half of Game 4 against Atlanta, but returning to the Wells Fargo Center should be just what the doctor ordered. This season, the big man averaged 52.7 FanDuel points at home, 8.1 more than his average on the road. In the first two home games of this series, Embiid dropped 63.8 and 64.6 FanDuel points. That upside will be damn near impossible to match without Kawhi on the slate.