NBA Betting Guide for Friday 6/18/21: What Do the Numbers Say About the Home Underdogs?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Philadelphia 76ers (-156) at Atlanta Hawks (+132)
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -3.0
Both games tonight feature road favorites, which is interesting.
We've had 11 games this postseason with a road team favored by 0.5 to 3.5 points, and those road favorites are 7-4 with an average point differential of 2.7 (and of 7.7 if we exclude a blowout loss).
numberFire's projections once again see this game close but lean toward the 76ers outright, viewing them as 51.0% likely to win and end the series.
However, the moneyline for the Atlanta Hawks (+132) is a two-star recommendation and is tied to an expected return of 13.6%.
The public has been on the 76ers this series, and that continues tonight: 60% of the tickets and 70% of the money is on the 76ers' moneyline.
The public is even heavier on the spread (75% of the money) for the 76ers, and numberFire's model likes the Hawks as a light recommendation (one-star) to cover.
The moneyline and spread are just really tight by comparison to the over/under.
numberFire rates the under as a three-star recommendation and considers it 65.3% likely to stay under 222 points. With how heavy the public generally is on overs, it's telling that only 53% of the tickets on the over/under are on the over. The under is 5-3 in this season series.
So, the under is the main play for me across both games, but we can find slight value on the Hawks' moneyline and spread.
Utah Jazz (-124) at Los Angeles Clippers (+106)
Spread: Utah Jazz -1.5
After jumping out to a 2-0 series lead, the Jazz now find themselves in a one-game deficit in the conference semi-finals.
After a Game 5 victory, the Los Angeles Clippers now have 93 minutes in the series without Kawhi Leonard, and they actually have a net rating of 17.9 against the Jazz in that span (compared to 4.3 with him). That's a little hard to believe, but take that for data.
numberFire's model is again siding with the home underdogs, rating both the Clippers +1.5 and the Clippers' moneyline (+108) as two-star recommendations out of five.
Notably, the home side has covered the spread in six of eight games in this series, and Clippers +1.5 seems logical here, based on the model.
The moneyline bets are pretty split: 51% of the tickets are on the Jazz, so we have reasons to like the Clippers to close it out tonight, especially at home.
numberFire's model likes the under as a two-star recommendation, though 86% of the money is on the over in the betting market, which is typical.
The over is 3-4-1 in the season series, but the three overs have come in the past four games. The five playoff games between them played -0.5, 5.5, 15.0, -1.5, and 9.5 points relative to the over/under, meaning each game in the series has either gone over or come within two points of doing so.
The over and Clippers +1.5 is where I'm focusing.