NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/22/21: What Does Our Algorithm Like for Game 2?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Los Angeles Clippers (+168) at Phoenix Suns (-200)
Spread: Phoenix Suns -5.0
Total: 223.0
Even without Chris Paul, the Suns forged out to a 1-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, who are without Kawhi Leonard. That'll be the case again for Game 2.
In Game 1, the Suns led in two of the four factors: effective field goal percentage and turnover rate. The Clippers edged out the Suns in offensive rebounding rate and free throws made per field goal attempt.
numberFire's model is leaning toward the Clippers' side of things. The algorithm likes the Suns to win 62.2% of the time, leaving a 37.8% shot for the Clippers. The moneyline odds of +168 suggest almost those same odds at 37.3%. The moneyline is getting a one-star recommendation out of five.
The Clippers spread is also getting a one-star recommendation, and the model sees Los Angeles covering 55.9% of the time. The betting public is somewhat split, at least on the spread, and 52% of the spread wagers are on the Suns to cover at home.
Meanwhile, 67% of the tickets are on the Suns' moneyline.
Using recent, relevant data without Leonard and Paul, my model likes the Suns to win around 59.3% of the time but the Clippers to cover 60.4% of the time, so I'm leaning on the Clippers +5.0 out of the spread and moneyline.
As for the over/under, our model likes the under (as a three-star recommendation) and sees this game staying under 66.3% of the time. The public, as usual, likes the over with 66% of the tickets (and 59% of the money) on the over. That's actually a little mild, as the over tends to get lots of love.
The under and the Clippers +5.0 are looking like the best routes for tonight.
