3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Brook Lopez Over 13.5 Points (-110)
It took Brook Lopez 46.4 minutes in Game 7, but he got up 11 shots and scored 19 points. For tonight, our algorithm is projecting Lopez to get to 14.5 points over 34.2 minutes, putting the over in action.
Lopez has scored pretty well in this season series against the Atlanta Hawks, averaging 14.0 points and netting at least 11 in all three of them.
On a per-minute basis, he averaged 0.49 points per minute in that matchup. At his projected rate of 34.2 minutes, he'd get to 16.8 points.
Using the lower baseline of even 14.5 points, Lopez should be viewed as 58.3% likely to hit the over, given his usual variance in scoring.
Clint Capela Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100)
We're getting even money on Clint Capela's rebounding over, and that's where the model is leaning. That makes for a great combination.
Capela is projected for 13.2 rebounds across 32.8 minutes (0.40 per minute). That's shy of his season-long rebounding rate of 0.46 minutes, too.
Capela hauled in 0.42 boards per minute across his sample against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.
So, the lightest projection for him would actually be the 13.2 over his minutes rate.
Using that as his expected average, I'm seeing Capela as 59.7% likely to go over his rebounding prop, suggesting the odds should be -148.
Khris Middleton Under 7.5 Rebounds (-112)
How about an under? One of the biggest discrepancies between our model and props on the lighter end is for Khris Middleton's rebounding prop.
Our model anticipates only 6.8 rebounds for Middleton despite 39.9 minutes, which works out to 0.17 per minute, in line with his full-season rate of 0.18.
His elevated minutes rate in the last series did lead to 10 rebounds in two straight games, but he has had some pretty wild rebounding differentials game to game.
At a projection of 6.8 boards, Middleton is rating out as 58.3% likely to stay under 8.0 boards.