FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Bucks at Hawks (6/27/21)
In a traditional FanDuel NBA lineup, you have a $60,000 salary cap to roster nine players. In the single-game setup, the salary cap is the same, but the lineup requirements are different.
You select five players of any position. One of your players will be your MVP, whose FanDuel points are multiplied by two. You also select a STAR player (whose production is multiplied by 1.5) and a PRO (multiplied by 1.2). Two UTIL players round out the roster, and they don't receive a multiplier to their production.
This makes the five players you select important in more than one way, as you need to focus on slotting in the best plays in the multiplier slots rather than just nailing the best overall plays of the game. Read this piece by Brandon Gdula for some excellent in-depth analysis on how to attack a single-game slate in NBA DFS.
The Milwaukee Bucks could not have asked for a better Game 2 rebound following an unexpected Game 1 loss on their home floor. Milwaukee beat the Atlanta Hawks by 34 on Friday to even the series as it heads to Atlanta.
Milwaukee is positioned as a 4.5-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday's game. The total of 223.5 is reflective of Milwaukee's third-fastest pace in the NBA this season, with Atlanta sitting 16th in the same category. In the only competitive game of the series thus far, the total landed on 229. With the teams separated by 32 points at halftime in Game 2, not many trends can be taken from Friday's contest in regards to the over/under.
Injuries and What-Ifs
Bogdan Bogdanovic will also likely be in the lineup for Game 3 despite being listed questionable with a knee injury. But Bogdanovic has clearly been less than 100% since his injury occurred. He played a playoff-low 18 minutes in Game 2, and that should open the door for others.
At The Top
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($16,500): The underlying concern for Atlanta following Game 2 is not just the outcome, but rather the fact that they appear to not have a clear answer for The Greek Freak. Giannis is averaging 1.72 FanDuel points per minute on a 30.6% usage rate in this series, and Atlanta is significantly missing the body of De'Andre Hunter as a defensive presence to slow down Giannis in transition. Antetokounmpo is nearly impossible to pass on at MVP. We project him for 68.5 FanDuel points -- 17.2 more than anyone else.
Trae Young ($16,000): Young's struggles were the largest contributing factor to Atlanta getting blasted on Friday, so the question moving forward is if the Milwaukee defense has found a consistent way to defend the point guard, or whether Young's 37.5% shooting was just an off night. Despite the poor effort, Young is the one sensible alternative to Giannis at MVP. He is still holding the best usage rate on either squad (42.9%) in the series as well as posting the second-best rate of FanDuel points per minute (1.26). A struggle for value on this single-game slate may make Antetokounmpo and Young difficult to pair together, so choose wisely in tournaments.
Jrue Holiday ($13,500): Frigid 38.1% shooting severely capped Holiday's production against the Brooklyn Nets, but Holiday's shot has come alive. Through two games, he is averaging 27.5 points per game on 60.1% shooting from the field (including 58.4% shooting from deep), which has allowed him to cash in on the substantial 25.4% usage he has held in this series. Holiday has taken more than 19 shots in five of the past nine contests -- leading the Bucks in shots on three occasions in that span -- which makes him one of two Bucks co-stars in a nice position for the STAR spot next to Giannis.
Khris Middleton ($12,500): Game theory on a single-game slate makes Middleton an interesting consideration against Holiday at the STAR spot. Middleton is just shooting 36.2% for the series -- and 14.1% from three-point land -- and that has come despite several quality looks versus a reeling Atlanta defense. Considering his salary, Middleton may see plenty of popularity for a rebound, as his shot came and went in the Brooklyn series, as well. Atlanta being stronger in the frontcourt than the Brooklyn Nets are has also dropped Middleton's rebounding volume from 8.7 per night versus the Nets to just 6.0 through two games against the Hawks, which is an additional factor to monitor that does not impact Holiday.
In The Middle
John Collins ($12,000): Collins was one of the few Hawks to play decently on Friday, posting 11 points and 8 rebounds in just 24 minutes. Collins has been incredibly consistent of late, going for 35 or more FanDuel points in five of his past seven games, and his 19.0% usage rate is more than serviceable alongside his 13.68 rebounds per 36 minutes in this series. If Milwaukee continues to move away from Brook Lopez, Clint Capela would be at risk of leaving the floor for another Atlanta wing, but Collins's playing time should be safe. That makes his floor fairly desirable on a topsy-turvy slate.
Clint Capela ($11,500): Following a seven-game war with Joel Embiid, Capela should see easier sledding on the glass in this series. Capela is averaging 13.5 rebounds in the two games thus far, compared to just 10.3 per game against the Philadelphia 76ers. His ceiling is fairly hamstrung due to his 10.1% usage in the series, which is a continuing downward trend from his 19.9% usage in the regular season. Capela has taken single-digit shot attempts in eighth of his past nine games, so it would not be wise to expect his offensive output to turn around. numberFire, for what it is worth, does have Capela as the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate at 43.6 FanDuel points.
Brook Lopez ($11,000): Rotations are so thin for both teams -- with only 13 players seeing at least 20 minutes in Game 1 -- that Lopez will always be at least a consideration in this mid-range tier. But even with Capela's court time still heavy, the Bucks have moved away from Lopez in this series, as he played just 20 minutes in Game 1. He was on pace to exceed 30 minutes on Friday if not for the blowout, so it is possible he returns to the 33.4 minutes per game he saw versus Brooklyn. With that said, Lopez is someone who just hasn't shown a big ceiling even when he's gotten big run, as he scored more than 30 FanDuel points just once in the seven games against the Nets.
Kevin Huerter ($10,000): Huerter led the Hawks with 30 minutes in Game 2, which might be a notable if you're banking on another blowout. The Game 7 hero against Philadelphia has not quite replicated that showing thus far in two games against Milwaukee, but Huerter has taken double-digit shot attempts in five of his past six games -- including both in this series. His usage rate of 16.5% is indicative of Huerter's catch-and-shoot style, but heading home may spark his scoring output once again, as he shot 8.6 percentage points better from three-point land this regular season in his home arena.
At The Bottom
P.J. Tucker ($8,500): In cash games, Tucker can be tolerated because he is on the court so much, but his offensive peripherals are dreadful for tournaments. Tucker has just a 3.4% usage rate in the first two games of this series, and that has resulted in an uninspiring 0.63 FanDuel points per minute, which is comprised mostly of rebounds, blocks, and steals. Of anyone under $10,000 in salary, Tucker is seeing by far the most minutes per game in the series (30.5), but he does not appear to have the role to really hit for much of a ceiling game.
Cam Reddish ($8,000): The former lottery pick returned from the knee injury that kept him out all postseason to play much of the garbage time presented in Friday's contest, and it could pay off substantially for Atlanta if he is needed to help supplement the decline of Bogdan Bogdanovic. Reddish actually now has the second-highest usage rate on the Hawks for the series at 26.9%, and in just 17 minutes in Game 2, he was able to eclipse double-digit shot attempts. It is impossible to determine how much Reddish would've played in Game 2 if not for the lopsided score, but he certainly has no issues taking shots. He could be a swing play if he gets decent minutes tonight.
Pat Connaughton ($7,500): Connaughton was the largest benefactor of Lopez seeing the bench in Game 1. Connaughton played 29 minutes and closed with the starters in the close loss, and that is likely far more indicative of his normal role than the 13 minutes he posted in the complete blowout Friday. Similar to Tucker, however, Connaughton just hasn't done much with the court time, producing just 0.57 FanDuel points per minute on 11.5% usage. It would probably be better to throw a dart at an Atlanta scorer with upside -- someone like Lou Williams.
-- Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging a higher FanDuel points per minute rate in this series (1.72) than he did during the entire regular season (1.63).
-- Trae Young's usage rate in the series is still 23 percentage points higher than the next highest Atlanta starter's.
-- Jrue Holiday is shooting 58.4% from three-point territory in this series, and Khris Middleton is shooting only 14.3% from deep, which may make Holiday the second-most popular Bucks player.
-- Brook Lopez saw only 20 minutes with no foul trouble in Game 1 and was largely replaced by Pat Connaughton, who posted 29 minutes as a result.
-- Cam Reddish took 10 shots in just 17 minutes in his return in Game 2.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.