NBA Betting Guide for Monday 6/28/21: Can the Clippers Keep the Series Going?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Los Angeles Clippers (+184) at Phoenix Suns (-220)
Spread: Phoenix Suns -5.5
Total: 214.0
The Los Angeles Clippers' collective backs are against the wall in the Western Conference Finals, and they'll have to battle back from a 3-1 deficit -- doing so one game at a time.
Kawhi Leonard remains out, and that's a tough scene for the Clippers' hopes of winning three straight. Despite that, numberFire's model likes the Clippers -- barely -- to keep it close.
Our model rates the Clippers' moneyline (+184) as a one-star recommendation out of five and their spread (+5.5) as a one-star recommendation, as well. So there are leans but not strong recommendations here, given the efficient lines.
There is no pick on the over/under at all from our model. Our algorithm anticipates a median score of 213.7, almost exactly the over/under of 214.0.
The public picks lean a bit more heavily one way or the other. There are 73% of bet slips on the Suns to win outright, and that's tied to 85% of the money, so a 12-point gap between those two numbers. That puts the expectation on the Suns to close out the series at home.
The Suns are getting 60% of the money and 56% of the bets to cover the 5.5-point spread.
There is also a 60% share of the money on the under, surprisingly. The public almost always loves the over.
A few notes about this season series overall, specifically on the over/under.
Just two of seven games in the season series went over the over/under, and only one of four in the playoff series went over, which likely explains the under trend from the public. We've seen these seven game fall an average of 12.8 points below the over/under. If we remove the 164-point Game 4, it's still 6.0 points shy, on averages.
With the Clippers' series net rating (0.5) actually being higher than the Suns (-0.5, naturally), the best opportunities look to be the under and the Clippers +5.5.
